Chimera Investment (Chimera Investment) Predictability Rank

View and export this data going back to 2007. Start your Free Trial

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Chimera Investment Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

Chimera Investment Predictability Rank Related Terms

Thank you for viewing the detailed overview of Chimera Investment's Predictability Rank provided by GuruFocus.com. Please click on the following links to see related term pages.

Chimera Investment (Chimera Investment) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Real Estate » REITs » Chimera Investment Corp (NYSE:CIM) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

FBRT MFA EFC ARR PMT BRSP CMTG TWO RWT LADR NLY AGNC STWD RITM BXMT ABR ARI RC DX KREF

Traded in Other Exchanges

CIMpD.PFD:USA CIMpC.PFD:USA CIMpB.PFD:USA CIMpA.PFD:USA 4CR1:Germany

Address

630 Fifth Avenue, Suite 2400, New York, NY, USA, 10111

Website

https://www.chimerareit.com

Chimera Investment Corporation is a real estate investment trust engaged in investing in a portfolio of mortgage assets on a leveraged basis. These investments include a variety of government-sponsored agency residential mortgage-backed securities, or RMBS, non-agency RMBS, agency commercial mortgage-backed securities, residential mortgage loans, and other real estate-related securities. Agency mortgage-backed securities represent the largest share of this portfolio, while subprime residential mortgage loans and non-agency RMBS also make up substantial shares. A significant percentage of these securities are backed by properties in California. The company generates nearly all of its income from interest payments derived from its investments.

Executives

Miyun Sung	officer: Chief Legal Officer	4-75 48TH AVENUE #705, LONG ISLAND CITY NY 11109
Sudhanshu Thakkar	officer: Co-Chief Investment Officer	630 FIFTH AVENUE, SUITE 2400, NEW YORK NY 10111
Sandra Bell	director	C/O TIPTREE INC., 660 STEAMBOAT ROAD, 2ND FL, GREENWICH CT 06830
Subramaniam Viswanathan	officer: Chief Financial Officer	103 HARDING AVE, EDISON NJ 08820
Kelley Kortman	officer: Principal Accounting Officer	520 MADISON AVE, FL 32, NEW YORK NY 10022
Kevin Gerald Chavers	director	C/O CHIMERA INVESTMENT CORPORATION, 520 MADISON AVENUE, 32ND FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10022
Matthew Lambiase	director, officer: Chief Exec. Officer and Pres.	1211 AVENUE OF THE AMERICAS, SUITE 2902, NEW YORK NY 10036
Kardis Phillip John Ii	officer: Chief Legal Officer	C/O CHIMERA INVESTMENT CORPORATION, 1211 AVENUE OF THE AMERICAS, NEW YORK NY 10036
Choudhary Yarlagadda	officer: Chief Operating Officer	1211 AVENUE OF THE AMERICAS, NEW YORK NY 10036
Robert S Colligan	officer: CFO	1211 AVENUE OF THE AMERICAS, STE 2902, NEW YORK NY 10036
Brian Patrick Reilly	director	520 MADISON AVENUE, 32ND FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10022
Paul Donlin	director	1211 AVENUE OF THE AMERICAS, SUITE 2902, NEW YORK NY 10036
Gerard Creagh	director	C/O DUFF & PHELPS CORPORATION, 55 EAST 52ND STREET, NEW YORK NY 10055
Mohit Marria	officer: Chief Investment Officer	1211 AVENUE OF THE AMERICAS, STE 2902, NEW YORK NY 10036
Debra Still	director	520 MADISON AVE, 32ND FL, C/O CHIMERA INVESTMENT CORPORATION, NEW YORK NY 10022