Chipotle Mexican Grill (Chipotle Mexican Grill) Predictability Rank

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Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Chipotle Mexican Grill Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

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Chipotle Mexican Grill (Chipotle Mexican Grill) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Consumer Cyclical » Restaurants » Chipotle Mexican Grill Inc (NYSE:CMG) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

CMG:Mexico C9F:Germany C1MG34:Brazil

Address

610 Newport Center Drive, Suite 1100, Newport Beach, CA, USA, 92660

Website

https://www.chipotle.com

Chipotle Mexican Grill is the largest fast-casual chain restaurant in the United States, with systemwide sales of $8.6 billion in 2022. The Mexican concept is predominately company-owned (it recently inked a development agreement with Alshaya Group in the Middle East), with a footprint of nearly 3,200 stores at the end of 2022, heavily indexed to the United States, although the firm maintains a small presence in Canada, the U.K., France, and Germany. Chipotle sells burritos, burrito bowls, tacos, quesadillas, and beverages, with a selling proposition built around competitive prices, high-quality food sourcing, speed of service, and convenience. The company generates its revenue entirely from restaurant sales and delivery fees.

Executives

Brian R Niccol	director, officer: Chairman, CEO	1 GLEN BELL WAY, IRVINE CA 92618
Gregg L Engles	director	1225 SEVENTEENTH STREET, SUITE 1000, DENVER CO 80202
Scott Boatwright	officer: Chief Restaurant Officer	1401 WYNKOOP STREET, SUITE 500, DENVER CO 80202
Robin S Hickenlooper	director	12300 LIBERTY BOULEVARD, ENGLEWOOD CO 80112
Laurie Schalow	officer: Chief Corp Affairs, Food Sft	610 NEWPORT CENTER DRIVE, SUITE 1300, NEWPORT BEACH CA 92660
Curtis E Garner	officer: Chief Technology Officer	C/O AEROHIVE NETWORKS, INC., 330 GIBRALTAR DRIVE, SUNNYVALE CA 94089
Christopher W Brandt	officer: Chief Marketing Officer	2202 NORTH WESTSHORE BLVD, TAMPA FL 33607
Patricia Filikrushel	director	DOLLAR GENERAL CORPORATION, 100 MISSION RIDGE, GOODLETTSVILLE TN 37072
Laura Fuentes	director	7930 JONES BRANCH DRIVE, MCLEAN VA 22102
Albert S Baldocchi	director	1601 HIGH STREET, BOULDER CO 80304
Marissa Andrada	officer: Chief D&I and People Officer	C/O KATE SPADE & COMPANY 2 PARK AVENUE, NEW YORK NY 10016
Roger E Theodoredis	officer: Chief Legal Officer & GC	1225 SEVENTEENTH STREET, SUITE 1000, DENVER CO 80202
Pershing Square Capital Management, L.p.	director	787 11TH AVENUE, 9TH FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10019
Jack Hartung	officer: CFO & Chief Development Ofcr	1543 WAZEE STREET, SUITE 200, DENVER CO 80202
Scott Harlan Maw	director	1411 E. MISSION AVENUE, SPOKANE WA 99202