ZW Data Action Technologies (ZW Data Action Technologies) Predictability Rank

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What is ZW Data Action Technologies Predictability Rank?

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

ZW Data Action Technologies Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

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ZW Data Action Technologies (ZW Data Action Technologies) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Communication Services » Media - Diversified » ZW Data Action Technologies Inc (NAS:CNET) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

N/A

Address

No. 2 Fengfu Road, Room 1811, Xinghuo Keji Plaza, Fengtai District, Beijing, CHN, 100195

Website

https://www.zdat.com

ZW Data Action Technologies Inc is engaged in providing Internet advertising, precision marketing, e-commerce online to offline (O2O) advertising and marketing services as well as the related data and technical services to small and medium enterprises in the PRC. It offers a variety channels of advertising and marketing services through its system, including distribution of the right to use search engine marketing services, provision of online advertising placements on its web portals, provision of ecommerce O2O advertising and marketing services and provision of other related value-added data and technical services to maximize market exposure and effectiveness for clients.

Executives

Changhua Qiu	director	NO.3 MIN ZHUANG RD. BUILDING 6, YU QUAN HUI GU TUSPARK, HAIDIAN DISTRICT, BEIJING F4 100195
Handong Cheng	director, 10 percent owner, officer: See Remarks	C/O CHINA NET ONLINE MEDIA GROUP LTD.NO3, MIN ZHUANG RD. YU QUAN HUI GU TUSPARK, HAIDIAN DISTRICT F4 100195
Xuanfu Liu	10 percent owner, officer: Chief Operating Officer	C/OCHINA NET ONLINE MEDIA GROUP LTD. NO3, MIN ZHUANG RD. YU QUAN HUI GU TUSPARK, HAIDIAN DISTRICT F4 100195
Rise King Investment Ltd	10 percent owner	C/O CHINANET ONLINE MEDIA GROUP LTD.NO.3, MIN ZHUANG YU QUAN HUI GU TUSPARK, HAIDIAN F4 100195
Zhige Zhang	director, officer: Chief Financial Officer	C/O CHINA NET ONLINE MEDIA GROUP LTD.NO3, MIN ZHUANG RD. YU QUAN HUI GU TUSPARK, HAIDIAN DISTRICT F4 100195
Kai Chu	officer: Chief Operating Officer	C/O CHINANET ONLINE HOLDINGS INC.,NO.3, MIN ZHUANG RD, BLDG 6 YU QUAN HUI GU TUS, HAIDIAN DISTRICT, BEIJING F4 100195
Douglas Charles Maclellan	director	11825 MAJOR STREET, CULVER CITY CA 90230
Mototaka Watanabe	director	7-29-13 KAMIKIZAKI, URAWA-KU, SAITAMA-SHI, SAITAMA-KEN M0 000000
Zhiqing Chen	director	18/F UNIVERSAL MANSION, 168 YU YUAN ROAD, SHANGHAI F4 200040
Li Sun	10 percent owner	C/O CHINANET ONLINE MEDIA GROUP LTD.NO.3, MIN ZHUANG RD. YU QUAN HUI GU TUSPARK, HAIDIAN DISTRICT, BEIJING NY 100195
Kotoi Hirofumi	director	C/O CHINANET ONLINE MEDIA GROUP LTD.NO.3, MIN ZHUANG RD. YU QUAN HUI GU TUSPARK, HAIDIAN DISTRICT, BEIJING F4 100195
Hai Cui	officer: VP, Head of Bank Kiosk Unit	C/O CHINANET ONLINE MEDIA GROUP LTD.NO.3, MIN ZHUANG RD. YU QUAN HUI GU TUSPARK, HAIDIAN DISTRICT, BEIJING F4 100195
Li Wang	officer: VP, Head of Human Resources	C/O CHINANET ONLINE MEDIA GROUP LTD.NO.3, MIN ZHUANG YU QUAN HUI GU TUSPARK, BEIJING F4 100195
Hu Wen	officer: VP, Head of TV Operations	C/O CHINANET ONLINE MEDIA GROUP LTD.NO.3, MIN ZHUANG YU QUAN HUI GU TUSPARK, BEIJING F4 100195
Xinwei Liu	officer: VGM, Head of 28.com	C/O CHINANET ONLINE MEDIA GROUP LTD.NO.3, MIN ZHUANG YU QUAN HUI GU TUSPARK, BEIJING F4 100195