Cornerstone Building Brands (NYSE:CNR) Predictability Rank

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Not Rated

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Cornerstone Building Brands Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

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Cornerstone Building Brands (NYSE:CNR) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Industrials » Construction » Cornerstone Building Brands Inc (NYSE:CNR) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

N/A

Address

5020 Weston Parkway, Suite 400, Cary, NC, USA, 27513

Website

https://www.cornerstonebuildingbrands.com

Cornerstone Building Brands Inc constructs and sells building materials for the commercial, residential, and repair industries in North America. The company operates in three segments: commercial, which provides metal products and coil coating services for commercial construction; siding, which offers vinyl and steel siding, aluminum coil and gutters, roofing accessories, moldings, window and door trim, rain removal systems, vents, fences, and railings; and windows, which includes vinyl, aluminum, and wooden windows as well as steel, wood, and fiberglass doors. All three segments contribute sizably to total revenue.

Executives

Rose Lee	director, officer: PRESIDENT & CEO	C/O CROWN HOLDINGS, INC., 770 TOWNSHIP LINE ROAD, YARDLEY PA 19067
Judith A Reinsdorf	director	C. R. BARD, INC., 730 CENTRAL AVENUE, MURRAY HILL NJ 07974
Alena Brenner	officer: EVP, GC and Corp. Sec.	5020 WESTON PARKWAY, SUITE 400 CARY NC 27513
Jeffrey S. Lee	officer: EVP, CFO	5020 WESTON PARKWAY, SUITE 400 CARY NC 27513
Katy Theroux	officer: Executive VP, Chief HR Officer	10943 N. SAM HOUSTON PARKWAY W. HOUSTON TX 77056
Daniel C. Janki	director	5020 WESTON PARKWAY, SUITE 400, CARY NC 27513
Timothy J. Obrien	director	C/O NCI BUILDING SYSTEMS, INC. 10943 NORTH SAM HOUSTON PARKWAY WEST HOUSTON TX 77064
George L. Ball	director	10943 N. SAM HOUSTON PARKWAY W., HOUSTON TX 77064
William E Jackson	director	ONE NEENAH CENTER, 4TH FLOOR P.O. BOX 669 NEENAH WI 54957
Kathleen J Affeldt	director
John J Holland	director	26602 W. GREENTREE, OLATHE KS 66061
James Keppler	officer: EVP, OPERATIONS	5020 WESTON PARKWAY SUITE 400 CARY NC 27513
James Wilbert W Jr	director	16100 SOUTH LATHROP AVENUE, HARVEY IL 60426
Wayne Irmiter	officer: SVP, CAO	5020 WESTON PARKWAY CAY NC 27513
Atrium Window Holdings, Llc	10 percent owner	C/O GOLDEN GATE PRIVATE EQUITY, INC. 1 EMBARCADERO CENTER SAN FRANCISCO CA 94111