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Computer Programs and Systems Predictability Rank


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Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.


Competitive Comparison

For the Health Information Services subindustry, Computer Programs and Systems's Predictability Rank, along with its competitors' market caps and Predictability Rank data, can be viewed below:

* Competitive companies are chosen from companies within the same industry, with headquarter located in same country, with closest market capitalization; x-axis shows the market cap, and y-axis shows the term value; the bigger the dot, the larger the market cap. Note that "N/A" values will not show up in the chart.

   

Computer Programs and Systems Predictability Rank Distribution

For the Healthcare Providers & Services industry and Healthcare sector, Computer Programs and Systems's Predictability Rank distribution charts can be found below:

* The bar in red indicates where Computer Programs and Systems's Predictability Rank falls into.



Computer Programs and Systems Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

PredictablesNon-PredictableAll stocks
Total Number of stocks57018332403
Total Lost Money61830891
Total Lost More Than 50%18412430
Total Lost More Than 90%48690
Average Gain260.6%100.0%138.1%
Median Gain150.0%13.0%39.0%
Maximum Gain2852.0%11483.0%11483.0%
Maximum Loss-100.0%-100.0%-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain12.7%6.7%8.4%
Annualized Median Gain8.9%1.1%3.1%


















For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank5-Star4.5-Star4-Star3.5-Star3-Star2.5-Star2-Star1-Star (non-predictable)Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks 3.3% 2.9% 3.7% 3.3% 3.3% 3.7% 3.3% 76.3% 100%
% that are in Loss (10y) 3% 10% 8% 9% 11% 18% 16% 45% 37%
Average Gain (10y) 364.6% 330.9% 278.0% 235.1% 243.5% 227.8% 154.8% 100.0% 138.1%
Median Gain (10y) 238.5% 193.5% 171.0% 159.0% 132.5% 113.5% 87.0% 13.0% 39.0%
Maximum Gainer 2228.0% 2547.0% 2452.0% 2852.0% 2432.0% 1892.0% 1807.0% 11483.0% 11483.0%
Maximum Loser -82.0% -53.0% -67.0% -100.0% -83.0% -100.0% -78.0% -100.0% -100.0%
Annualized Average Gain 15.4% 14.6% 13.2% 12.0% 12.2% 11.7% 9.1% 6.7% 8.4%
Annualized Median Gain 12.1% 10.6% 9.8% 9.3% 8.2% 7.3% 6.0% 1.1% 3.1%
















For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

Also read:

Part II: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part II: Role of Valuations
Part III: Intrinsic Value, Discounted Cash Flow and Margin of Safety

Computer Programs and Systems Predictability Rank Related Terms

Thank you for viewing the detailed overview of Computer Programs and Systems's Predictability Rank provided by GuruFocus.com. Please click on the following links to see related term pages.


Computer Programs and Systems Business Description

Computer Programs and Systems logo
Industry
Traded in Other Exchanges
Address
6600 Wall Street, Mobile, AL, USA, 36695
Computer Programs and Systems Inc is a provider of healthcare solutions and services for community hospitals and post-acute care facilities. The company's segment includes Acute Care EHR, Post-acute Care EHR, and TruBridge. Acute Care EHR segment consists of acute care software solutions and support sales generated by Evident and Health and. Post-acute Care EHR segment consists of post-acute care software solutions and support sales generated by AHT, and TruBridge segment primarily consists of business management, consulting and managed IT services sales generated by TruBridge and the sale of Rycan's revenue cycle management workflow and automation software. It generates a majority of its revenue from the Acute Care EHR segment.
Executives
Strong Jeffrey A. director 157 COLUMBUS AVE SUITE 403 NEW YORK CITY NY 10023
Douglas John B Jr director, officer: President and CEO 333 DALEWOOD DR. MOBILE AL 36608
Schneider Victor S officer: Executive Vice President 5 DEMOUY AVE. MOBILE AL 36606
Fowler Christopher L officer: COO and President (TruBridge) 6600 WALL STREET MOBILE AL 36695
Britain James B officer: VP - Finance and Controller 6600 WALL STREET MOBILE AL 36695
Hinckle Robert D officer: Senior VP - Client Services COMPUTER PROGRAMS AND SYSTEMS, INC. 6600 WALL STREET MOBILE AL 36695
Rosser Troy D officer: Senior Vice President - Sales COMPUTER PROGRAMS & SYSTEMS, INC. 6600 WALL STREET MOBILE AL 36695
Chambless Matt J officer: CFO, Secretary & Treasurer 6600 WALL STREET MOBILE AL 36695
Mulherin William A Iii director 228 S. MCGREGOR AVE MOBILE AL 36608
Tobin Glenn director CERNER CORP 2800 ROCKCREEK PARKWAY KANSAS CITY MO 64117
Warren Denise Wilder director 6600 WALL STREET MOBILE AL 36695
Benjamin Regina M. director 51 SAWYER ROAD, SUITE 200 WALTHAM MA 02453
Huffman Charles P director PUBLIC "-//W3C//DTD HTML 4.0 Transitional//EN"> Ownership Information: HUFFMAN CHARLES P a.header:link {color: #3b4fae; font-weight: bold; text-decoration: underline;} a.header:visited {color: #3b4fae; font-weight: bold; text-decoration: underline;} a.header:hover {color: #191970;}
Hjelm Christopher T director C/O THE KROGER CO. 1014 VINE ST. CINCINNATI OH 45202
Outlaw Arthur Robert Jr director 6600 WALL STREET MOBILE AL 36695

Computer Programs and Systems Headlines

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