Cisco Systems (NAS:CSCO) Predictability Rank

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Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Cisco Systems Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

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Cisco Systems (NAS:CSCO) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Technology » Hardware » Cisco Systems Inc (NAS:CSCO) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Traded in Other Exchanges

CSCO:Mexico 0R0K:UK CIS:Germany CSCO:Canada CSCO34:Brazil CIS:Belgium CSCO:Austria CSCO:Argentina

Address

170 West Tasman Drive, San Jose, CA, USA, 95134-1706

Website

https://www.cisco.com

Cisco Systems is the largest provider of networking equipment in the world and one of the largest software companies in the world. Its largest businesses are selling networking hardware and software (where it has leading market shares) and cybersecurity software like firewalls. It also has collaboration products, like its Webex suite, and observability tools. It primarily outsources its manufacturing to third parties and has a large sales and marketing staff—25,000 strong across 90 countries. Overall, Cisco employees 80,000 employees and sells its products globally.

Executives

Sarah Rae Murphy	director	C/O CISCO SYSTEMS, INC., 170 WEST TASMAN DRIVE, SAN JOSE CA 95134
Jeffery S. Sharritts	officer: EVP & Chief Cust & Prtnr Offcr	1200 ABERNATHY RD., NE, STE 1200, ATLANTA GA 30328
Deborah L Stahlkopf	officer: EVP and Chief Legal Officer	C/O CISCO SYSTEMS, INC., 170 WEST TASMAN DRIVE, SAN JOSE CA 95134
Marianna Tessel	director	C/O INTUIT INC., 2700 COAST AVENUE, MOUNTAIN VIEW CA 94043
John D Harris	director	C/O FLEXTRONICS INTERNATIONAL USA, INC., 6201 AMERICA CENTER DRIVE, SAN JOSE CA 95002
Richard Scott Herren	officer: EVP and CFO	851 WEST CYPRESS CREEK ROAD, FORT LAUDERDALE FL 33309
Wesley G Bush	director	333 MAPLE AVENUE EAST, #3080, VIENNA VA 22180
Lisa T Su	director	C/O ADVANCED MICRO DEVICES, INC., 2485 AUGUSTINE DRIVE, SANTA CLARA CA 95054
Carol B Tome	director	55 GLENLAKE PARKWAY, NE, ATLANTA GA 30328
Geraldine Elliott	officer: EVP, Chief Sales & Mktg Offcr	1194 N. MATHILDA AVE., SUNNYVALE CA 94089
Maria Martinez	officer: EVP, Chief Customer Exp Offcr	THE LANDMARK @ 1 MARKET STREET, SUITE 300, SAN FRANCISCO CA 94105
Mark Garrett	director	106 EAST BABCOCK STREET SUITE 3A, BOZEMAN MT 59715
Irving Tan	officer: SVP, Operations and Digital	170 WEST TASMAN DRIVE, SAN JOSE CA 95134
David Goeckeler	officer: EVP, Networking and Security	C/O WESTERN DIGITAL CORPORATION, 5601 GREAT OAKS PARKWAY, SAN JOSE CA 95119
Brent L Saunders	director	2000 GALLOPING HILL ROAD, C/O SCHERING PLOUGH CORP, KENILWORTH NJ 07033