Dolby Laboratories (Dolby Laboratories) Predictability Rank

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Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Dolby Laboratories Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

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Dolby Laboratories (Dolby Laboratories) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Industrials » Business Services » Dolby Laboratories Inc (NYSE:DLB) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

FUO:Germany FUO:Germany

Address

1275 Market Street, San Francisco, CA, USA, 94103-1410

Website

https://www.dolby.com

Dolby Laboratories Inc develops audio and surround sound for cinema, broadcast, home audio systems, in-car entertainment systems, DVD players, games, televisions, and personal computers. The company generates three fourths of its revenue from licensing its technology to consumer electronics manufacturers around the world. The rest of revenue comes from equipment sales to professional producers and audio engineering services.

Executives

Kevin J Yeaman	officer: VP, Chief Financial Officer	C/O DOLBY LABORATORIES, INC., 1275 MARKET STREET, SAN FRANCISCO CA 94103
Mark Andrew Sherman	officer: EVP, GEN. COUN. & SECRTY	DOLBY LABORATORIES, INC., 1275 MARKET STREET, SAN FRANCISCO CA 94103
John D Couling	officer: SVP, Entertainment	C/O DOLBY LABORATORIES, INC., 1275 MARKET STREET, SAN FRANCISCO CA 94103
Todd Pendleton	officer: SVP, Chief Marketing Officer	1275 MARKET STREET, SAN FRANCISCO CA 94103
Emily Rollins	director	C/O DOLBY LABORATORIES, INC., 1275 MARKET STREET, SAN FRANCISCO CA 94103
Anjali Sud	director	C/O VIMEO INC., 555 WEST 18TH STREET, NEW YORK NY 10011
Simon Segars	director	C/O DOLBY LABORATORIES, INC., 1275 MARKET STREET, SAN FRANCISCO CA 94103
Avadis Tevanian	director	DOLBY LABORATORIES INC, 1275 MARKET STREET, SAN FRANCISCO CA 94103
Peter C Gotcher	director
Ryan Nicholson	officer: VP, Corporate Controller	C/O DOLBY LABORATORIES INC., 1275 MARKET STREET, SAN FRANCISCO CA 94103
Shriram Revankar	officer: SVP, Advanced Technology Group	C/O DOLBY LABORATORIES, INC., 1275 MARKET STREET, SAN FRANCISCO CA 94103
Tony A Prophet	director	9 BERNICE STREET, SAN FRANCISCO CA 94103
Robert J Park	officer: SVP & Chief Financial Officer	C/O DOLBY LABORATORIES, INC., 1275 MARKET STREET, SAN FRANCISCO CA 94103
Steven E Forshay	officer: Sr. Vice President, Research	1275 MARKET STREET, SAN FRANCISCO CA 94103
Lewis Chew	officer: EVP, Chief Financial Officer	DOLBY LABORATORIES, INC., 1275 MARKET STREET, SAN FRANCISCO CA 94103