EMCOR Group (EMCOR Group) Predictability Rank

View and export this data going back to 1994. Start your Free Trial

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

EMCOR Group Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

EMCOR Group Predictability Rank Related Terms

Thank you for viewing the detailed overview of EMCOR Group's Predictability Rank provided by GuruFocus.com. Please click on the following links to see related term pages.

EMCOR Group (EMCOR Group) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Industrials » Construction » EMCOR Group Inc (NYSE:EME) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

EM4:Germany

Address

301 Merritt Seven, Norwalk, CT, USA, 06851-1092

Website

https://www.emcorgroup.com

EMCOR Group Inc is one of the largest electrical, mechanical, construction, and facilities services firms in the United States. It provides a wide range of services, including the installation of electrical distribution systems, voice & data communication systems, and environmental controls within buildings. The company's services are provided to a broad range of commercial, industrial, utility, and institutional customers. Emcor Group enters contracts for large installation projects in the multimillion-dollar range, or smaller projects involving renovations and retrofit work. It also operates as a subcontractor to general contractors, systems suppliers, and property managers. It generates sales primarily in the United States, but the company does offer services United kingdom.

Executives

R Kevin Matz	officer: SVP, Admin & Strategic Service	301 MERRITT SEVEN 6TH FLOOR, NORWALK CT 06851
Anthony Guzzi	officer: President & COO	301 MERRITT SEVEN, 6TH FLOOR, NORWALK CT 06851
Mark A Pompa	officer: SVP, CAO & Treasurer	301 MERRITT SEVEN 6TH FLOOR, NORWALK CT 06851
Maxine Lum Mauricio	officer: SVP and General Counsel	301 MERRITT SEVEN CORPORATE PARK, 6TH FL, C/O EMCOR GROUP INC., NORWALK CT 06851
Jason R Nalbandian	officer: SVP & Chief Accounting Officer	301 MERRITT SEVEN CORPORATE PARK, 6TH FL, C/O EMCOR GROUP, INC., NORWALK CT 06851
Rebecca A Weyenberg	director	1725 SHEPHERD RD, CHATTANOOGA TN 37421
Carol P Lowe	director	4311 BEULAH CHURCH ROAD, WEDDINGTON NC 28104
M Kevin Mcevoy	director	C/O OCEANEERING INTERNATIONAL INC, 11911 FM 529, HOUSTON TX 77041-3011
William P Reid	director	301 MERRITT SEVEN CORPORATE PARK, 6TH FL, C/O EMCOR GROUP, INC., NORWALK CT 06851
Hamm Richard F Jr	director	6370 OXBOW BEND, CHANHASSEN MN 55317
Ronald L Johnson	director	3344 PEACHTREE STREET NE, #3403, ATLANTA GA 30326
John W Altmeyer	director	946 HIGHMEADOW COURT, LANCASTER PA 17601
Brown David A B	director
Robin A Walker-lee	director	C/O TRW AUTOMOTIVE, 12001 TECH CENTER DRIVE, LIVONIA MI 48150
Jerry E Ryan	director	3201 EAST 65TH, TULSA OK 74136