Element Solutions (Element Solutions) Predictability Rank

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Not Rated

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Element Solutions Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

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Element Solutions (Element Solutions) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Basic Materials » Chemicals » Element Solutions Inc (NYSE:ESI) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

PLQ:Germany PLQ:Germany

Address

500 East Broward Boulevard, Suite 1860, Fort Lauderdale, FL, USA, 33394

Website

https://www.elementsolutionsinc.com

Element Solutions Inc is a specialty chemicals company whose businesses supply a broad range of solutions that enhance the performance of products people use every day. The company has two segments which are Electronics and Industrial & Specialty. The Industrial & Specialty segment researches, formulates and sells specialty chemicals and process technologies that enhance surfaces or improve industrial processes in diverse industrial sectors from automotive trim to transcontinental infrastructure and from high-speed printing to high-design faucets. The electronics segment researches, formulates and sells specialty chemicals and material process technologies for all types of electronics hardware, from complex printed circuit board designs to semiconductor packaging.

Executives

Nichelle Maynard-elliott	director	PLATFORM SPECIALTY PRODUCTS CORPORATION, 383 MAIN AVENUE, NORWALK CT 06851
Michael Goralski	officer: See Remarks	383 MAIN AVENUE, 6TH FLOOR, NORWALK CT 06851
Benjamin Gliklich	officer: VP Corporate Dev, Finance & IR	245 FREIGHT STREET, WATERBURY CT 06702
Carey J. Dorman	officer: Chief Financial Officer	C/O ELEMENT SOLUTIONS INC, 383 MAIN AVENUE, 6TH FLOOR, NORWALK CT 06851
Martin E Franklin	director	C/O MARIPOSA CAPITAL, LLC, 5200 BLUE LAGOON DRIVE, SUITE 855, MIAMI FL 33126
Elyse Napoli Filon	director	383 MAIN AVENUE, 6TH FLOOR, NORWALK CT 06851
Scot Benson	officer: President - Perf. Solutions	245 FREIGHT STREET, WATERBURY CT 06702
Joseph J. D'ambrisi	officer: SVP and Head of Electronics	383 MAIN AVENUE, 6TH FLOOR, NORWALK CT 06851
Patricia Mount	officer: VP, Program Mgt & Integration	JARDEN CORPORATION, 555 THEODORE FREMD AVENUE, RYE NY 10580
Christopher T. Fraser	director	9555 WEST SAM HOUSTON PARKWAY SOUTH, SUITE 600, HOUSTON TX 77099
Ashken Ian G H	director	C/O MARIPOSA CAPITAL, LLC, 5200 BLUE LAGOON DRIVE, SUITE 855, MIAMI FL 33126
John Edward Capps	officer: EVP, General Counsel & Sec.	2381 EXECUTIVE CENTER DRIVE, BOCA RATON FL 33431
Rakesh Sachdev	officer: Chief Executive Officer	3050 SPRUCE STREET, ST LOUIS MO 63103
Pershing Square Capital Management, L.p.	director, 10 percent owner	787 11TH AVENUE, 9TH FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10019
John David Tolbert	officer: Chief Human Resources Officer	345 S HIGH STREET, STE 201, MUNCIE IN 47305