Entergy (Entergy) Predictability Rank

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Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Entergy Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

Entergy Predictability Rank Related Terms

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Entergy (Entergy) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Utilities » Utilities - Regulated » Entergy Corp (NYSE:ETR) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

FE DTE ES PPL AEE WEC CNP CMS EIX XEL NEE SO DUK LSE:NG. AEP PCG D BOM:532555 EXC PEG

Traded in Other Exchanges

ETY:Germany

Address

639 Loyola Avenue, New Orleans, LA, USA, 70113

Website

https://www.entergy.com

Entergy is a holding company with five regulated integrated utilities that generate and distribute electricity to about 3 million customers in Arkansas, Louisiana, Mississippi, and Texas. It is one of the largest power producers in the country with approximately 23 gigawatts of rate-regulated utility-owned power generation capacity. Entergy was the second-largest nuclear owner in the U.S. before it began retiring and selling its plants in the Northeast in 2014.

Executives

Marcus V Brown	officer: Senior V.P. & General Counsel	C/O ENTERGY CORPORATION LEGAL DEPT., 639 LOYOLA AVE., 26TH FL., NEW ORLEANS LA 70113
Deanna D. Rodriguez	other: "Officer" Under Sec. 16 Rules	C/O ENTERGY CORPORATION LEGAL DEPT., 639 LOYOLA AVE., 26TH FLOOR, NEW ORLEANS LA 70113
Alexis M Herman	director	1501 M STREET N W SUITE 1175, WASHINGTON DC 20005
Gina F. Adams	director	C/O ENTERGY CORPORATION LEGAL DEPT., 639 LOYOLA AVE., 26TH FLOOR, NEW ORLEANS LA 70113
John H. Black	director	C/O ENTERGY CORPORATION LEGAL DEPT., 639 LOYOLA AVE., 26TH FLOOR, NEW ORLEANS LA 70113
Anastasia Minor	other: "Officer" Under Sec. 16 Rules	C/O ENTERGY CORPORATION LEGAL DEPT., 639 LOYOLA AVE., 26TH FLOOR, NEW ORLEANS LA 70113
Haley Fisackerly	other: "Officer" Under Sec 16 Rules
Jason Chapman	other: "Officer" Under Sec. 16 Rules	C/O ENTERGY CORPORATION LEGAL DEPT., 639 LOYOLA AVE., 26TH FLOOR, NEW ORLEANS LA 70113
Reginald T Jackson	officer: SVP, Chief Accounting Officer	C/O ENTERGY CORPORATION LEGAL DEPT., 639 LOYOLA AVE., 26TH FLOOR, NEW ORLEANS LA 70113
Kimberly Cook-nelson	officer: EVP, Chief Nuclear Officer	C/O ENTERGY CORPORATION LEGAL DEPT., 639 LOYOLA AVE., 26TH FLOOR, NEW ORLEANS LA 70113
Paul D Hinnenkamp	officer: SVP & Chief Operating Officer	C/O ENTERGY CORPORATION LEGAL DEPT., 639 LOYOLA AVE., 26TH FLOOR, NEW ORLEANS LA 70113
Norgeot Peter S Jr	officer: SVP, Transformation	C/O ENTERGY CORPORATION LEGAL DEPT., 639 LOYOLA AVENUE, 26TH FLOOR, NEW ORLEANS LA 70113
Leo P Denault	officer: Executive V.P. and CFO
May Phillip R Jr	other: "Officer" Under Sec. 16 Rules	C/O ENTERGY CORPORATION LEGAL DEPT., 639 LOYOLA AVE., 26TH FLOOR, NEW ORLEANS LA 70113
Andrew S Marsh	officer: Executive Vice President & CFO	C/O ENTERGY CORPORATION LEGAL DEPT., 639 LOYOLA AVE., 26TH FLOOR, NEW ORLEANS LA 70113