Freeport-McMoRan (Freeport-McMoRan) Predictability Rank

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What is Freeport-McMoRan Predictability Rank?

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Freeport-McMoRan Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

Freeport-McMoRan Predictability Rank Related Terms

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Freeport-McMoRan (Freeport-McMoRan) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Basic Materials » Metals & Mining » Freeport-McMoRan Inc (NYSE:FCX) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

FCX:Peru FCX:Mexico 1FCX:Italy FPMBd:UK 0R2O:UK FPMB:Germany FPMB:Germany FPMB:Germany FCX:Chile FCXO34:Brazil FCX:Austria FCX:Argentina

Address

333 North Central Avenue, Phoenix, AZ, USA, 85004-2189

Website

https://www.fcx.com

Freeport-McMoRan Inc is an international mining company. It operates geographically diverse assets with proven and probable mineral reserves of copper, gold, and molybdenum. The company's portfolio of assets includes the Grasberg minerals district in Indonesia; and mining operations in North America and South America, including the large-scale Morenci minerals district in Arizona and the Cerro Verde operation in Peru. It derives key revenue from the sale of Copper.

Executives

Sara Grootwassink Lewis	director	C/O CAPITALSOURCE INC., 4445 WILLARD AVENUE, 12TH FLOOR, CHEVY CHASE MD 20815
Ellie L. Mikes	officer: Chief Accounting Officer	333 N. CENTRAL AVE., PHOENIX AZ 85004
Currault Douglas N. Ii	officer: Senior VP & General Counsel	333 N. CENTRAL AVENUE, PHOENIX AZ 85004
Ryan Michael Lance	director	SHIPPING & RECEIVING CENTER, 16930 PARK ROW DR., HOUSTON TX 77084
Marcela E Donadio	director	7909 PARKWOOD CIRCLE DRIVE, HOUSTON TX 77036-6565
David P Abney	director	55 GLENLAKE PARWAY, NE, ATLANTA GA 30328
Robert W. Dudley	director	333 NORTH CENTRAL AVENUE, PHOENIX AZ 85004
Dustan E Mccoy	director
Hugh Grant	director	C/O PPG INDUSTRIES, INC., 1 PPG PLACE, PITTSBURGH PA 15272
Whitmire C Donald Jr	officer: Vice President and Controller
Maree E. Robertson	officer: SVP & CFO	333 N. CENTRAL AVE., PHOENIX AZ 85004
Stephen T. Higgins	officer: Senior VP & CAO	333 N. CENTRAL AVENUE, PHOENIX AZ 85004
Kathleen L Quirk	officer: SVP, CFO, Treasurer	1615 POYDRAS STREET, NEW ORLEANS LA 70112
Richard C Adkerson	officer: President and CFO
Gerald J Ford	director	200 CRESCENT CT STE 1350, DALLAS TX 75201