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Granite City Food & Brewery (Granite City Food & Brewery) Predictability Rank


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What is Granite City Food & Brewery Predictability Rank?

Not Rated

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.


Granite City Food & Brewery Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

PredictablesNon-PredictableAll stocks
Total Number of stocks57018332403
Total Lost Money61830891
Total Lost More Than 50%18412430
Total Lost More Than 90%48690
Average Gain260.6%100.0%138.1%
Median Gain150.0%13.0%39.0%
Maximum Gain2852.0%11483.0%11483.0%
Maximum Loss-100.0%-100.0%-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain12.7%6.7%8.4%
Annualized Median Gain8.9%1.1%3.1%


















For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank5-Star4.5-Star4-Star3.5-Star3-Star2.5-Star2-Star1-Star (non-predictable)Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks 3.3% 2.9% 3.7% 3.3% 3.3% 3.7% 3.3% 76.3% 100%
% that are in Loss (10y) 3% 10% 8% 9% 11% 18% 16% 45% 37%
Average Gain (10y) 364.6% 330.9% 278.0% 235.1% 243.5% 227.8% 154.8% 100.0% 138.1%
Median Gain (10y) 238.5% 193.5% 171.0% 159.0% 132.5% 113.5% 87.0% 13.0% 39.0%
Maximum Gainer 2228.0% 2547.0% 2452.0% 2852.0% 2432.0% 1892.0% 1807.0% 11483.0% 11483.0%
Maximum Loser -82.0% -53.0% -67.0% -100.0% -83.0% -100.0% -78.0% -100.0% -100.0%
Annualized Average Gain 15.4% 14.6% 13.2% 12.0% 12.2% 11.7% 9.1% 6.7% 8.4%
Annualized Median Gain 12.1% 10.6% 9.8% 9.3% 8.2% 7.3% 6.0% 1.1% 3.1%
















For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

Also read:

Part II: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part II: Role of Valuations
Part III: Intrinsic Value, Discounted Cash Flow and Margin of Safety

Granite City Food & Brewery Predictability Rank Related Terms

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Granite City Food & Brewery (Granite City Food & Brewery) Business Description

Traded in Other Exchanges
N/A
Address
3600 American Boulevard West, Suite 400, Bloomington, MN, USA, 55431
Granite City Food & Brewery Ltd owns and operates a restaurant with an on-site brewery. The company operates two casual dining concepts which include Granite city food and brewery and Cadillac ranch all American bar and grill. The Granite city restaurant theme is upscale casual dining with a wide variety of menu items, which includes handcrafted beers finished on-site. Cadillac Ranch restaurants feature authentic, cuisine in a fun, dynamic environment. Its menu is diverse with offerings ranging from homemade meatloaf to pasta dishes. It has approximately 36 restaurants in over 10 states. In addition, it also operates a centralized beer production facility in Ellsworth, Iowa which facilitates the initial stages of its brewing process.
Executives
Lou Mucci director 16161 BEACH BLVD, STE 100, HUNTINGTON BEACH CA 92647
Peter Hausback officer: Chief Financial Officer 201 W NORTH RIVER DR, STE 100, SPOKANE WA 99201
Whitebox Advisors Llc 10 percent owner 3033 EXCELSIOR BLVD., SUITE 500, MINNEAPOLIS MN 55416
Gary S Kohler 10 percent owner 5000 W 36TH STREET, SUITE 115, MINNEAPOLIS MN 55416
Whitebox Intermarket Partners Lp 10 percent owner 3033 EXCELSIOR BLVD, SUITE 300, MINNEAPOLIS MN 55416
Whitebox Intermarket Advisors, Llc 10 percent owner 3033 EXCELSIOR BOULEVARD, SUITE 300, MINNEAPOLIS MN 55416
Whitebox Intermarket Fund Lp 10 percent owner 3033 EXCELSIOR BLVD, SUITE 300, MINNEAPOLIS MN 55416
Whitebox Intermarket Fund, Ltd. 10 percent owner TRIDENT TRUST COMPANY (BVI) LIMITED, TRIDENT CHMBRS WATERFRONT DR WICKHAM CAY, ROAD TOWN, TORTOLA D8 00000

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