Gannett Co (Gannett Co) Predictability Rank

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What is Gannett Co Predictability Rank?

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Gannett Co Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

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Gannett Co (Gannett Co) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Communication Services » Media - Diversified » Gannett Co Inc (NYSE:GCI) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

2N2A:Germany

Address

7950 Jones Branch Drive, McLean, VA, USA, 22107-0910

Website

https://www.gannett.com

Gannett Co Inc is a digital newspaper company providing local media and marketing solutions in the U.S. The Group operate in two segments, Gannett Media and Digital Marketing Solutions. The majority of revenue is from the Gannett media segment. The company's brands include USA TODAY and more than 250 daily newspapers as well as digital marketing services companies, including ReachLocal, WordStream and others. The company produces more than 350 annual events, such as themed expos. The company also operates in the U.K. through the U.K. media company Newsquest to provide more than 150 local media brands.

Executives

Laurence Tarica	director	1345 AVENUE OF THE AMERICAS, NEW YORK NY 10105
Michael Reed	director, officer: Chief Executive Officer	C/O NEWM, 1345 AVENUE OF THE AMERICAS, NEW YORK NY 10105
Cindy Gallagher	officer: CAO and PAO	C/O GANNETT CO., INC., 7950 JONES BRANCH DRIVE, MCLEAN VA 22107
Amy Reinhard	director	C/O GANNETT CO., INC., 7950 JONES BRANCH DRIVE, MCLEAN VA 22107
John Jeffry Louis	director	C/O GANNETT CO., INC., 7950 JONES BRANCH DRIVE, MCLEAN VA 22107
Vinayak Hegde	director	9785 S. MONROE STREET, SUITE 300, SANDY UT 84070
Debra A. Sandler	director	KEURIG DR PEPPER INC., 53 SOUTH AVE., BURLINGTON MA 01803
Theodore Peter Janulis	director	C/O FORTRESS INVESTMENT GROUP, 1345 AVENUE OF THE AMERICAS, NEW YORK NY 10105
Mayur Gupta	director	1345 AVENUE OF THE AMERICAS, 45TH FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10105
Paul J Bascobert	officer: CEO of Gannett Media Corp.	20 W. KINZIE ST, SUITE 1600, CHICAGO IL 60610
Douglas Edward Horne	officer: CFO and CAO	ONE TIME WARNER CENTER, NEW YORK NY 10019
Maria M Miller	director	C/O DAVE & BUSTERS, 2481 MANANA DR, DALLAS TX 75220
Barbara W. Wall	director	C/O GANNETT CO., INC., 7950 JONES BRANCH DR., MCLEAN VA 22107
Kevin M Sheehan	director	DAVE & BUSTER'S ENTERTAINMENT INC., 2481 MANANA DRIVE, DALLAS TX 75220
Alison K Engel	officer: Chief Financial Officer	400 SOUTH RECORD STREET, DALLAS TX 75202