General Dynamics (General Dynamics) Predictability Rank

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Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

General Dynamics Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

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General Dynamics (General Dynamics) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Industrials » Aerospace & Defense » General Dynamics Corp (NYSE:GD) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

1GD:Italy GDX:Germany GDX:Germany GDX:Germany GDBR34:Brazil

Address

11011 Sunset Hills Road, Reston, VA, USA, 20190

Website

https://www.gd.com

General Dynamics is a defense contractor and business jet manufacturer. The firm's segments include aerospace, marine, combat systems, and technologies. General Dynamics' aerospace segment creates Gulfstream business jets and operates a global aircraft servicing operation. Combat systems produces land-based combat vehicles such as the M1 Abrams tank and Stryker armored personnel carrier, as well as munitions. The marine segment creates and services nuclear-powered submarines, destroyers, and other ships. The technologies segment contains two main units, an IT business that primarily serves the government market and a mission systems business that focuses on products that provide command, control, computing, intelligence, surveillance, and reconnaissance capabilities to the military.

Executives

Gregory S Gallopoulos	officer: Senior VP, Gen. Counsel, Sec.	C/O GENERAL DYNAMICS CORPORATION, 2941 FAIRVIEW PARK DRIVE, SUITE 100, FALLS CHURCH VA 22042
Phebe N Novakovic	director, officer: Chairman and CEO
Marguerite Amy Gilliland	officer: Senior Vice President	2941 FAIRVIEW PARK DRIVE, FALLS CHURCH VA 22042
Charles W Hooper	director	C/O APA CORPORATION, 2000 POST OAK BLVD STE 100, HOUSTON TX 77056
Mark Malcolm	director	TOWER INTERNATIONAL, INC., 17672 LAUREL PARK DRIVE N., SUITE 400E, LIVONIA MI 48152
Richard D Clarke	director	11011 SUNSET HILLS ROAD, RESTON VA 20190
Mark Lagrand Burns	officer: Vice President	2941 FAIRVIEW PARK DRIVE, SUITE 100, FALLS CHURCH VA 22042
Mark C. Roualet	officer: Vice President	C/O GENERAL DYNAMICS CORPORATION, 2941 FAIRVIEW PARK DRIVE, SUITE 100, FALLS CHURCH VA 22042
William A Moss	officer: Vice President and Controller	2941 FAIRVIEW PARK DRIVE, FALLS CHURCH VA 22042
James S Crown	director	222 N LASALLE STREET, STE 2000, CHICAGO IL 60601
Robert K Steel	director	85 BROAD STREET, NEW YORK NY 10004
William A Osborn	director	100 NE ADAMS STREET, PEORIA IL 61629
Danny Deep	officer: Vice President	11011 SUNSET HILLS ROAD, RESTON VA 20190
John G Stratton	director	1095 AVENUE OF THE AMERICAS, 8TH FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10036
Lester L Lyles	director	C/O MTC TECHNOLOGIES INC, 4032 LINDEN AVENUE, DAYTON OH 45432