Geron (GERN) Predictability Rank

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Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Geron Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

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Geron (GERN) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Healthcare » Biotechnology » Geron Corp (NAS:GERN) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

GON:Germany

Address

919 East Hillsdale Boulevard, Suite 250, Foster City, CA, USA, 94404

Website

https://www.geron.com

Geron Corp is a clinical-stage biopharmaceutical company focused on the research and development of cancer treatments. The company's leading drug in development, Imelstat, is being tested for the treatment of myelodysplastic syndromes, which are disorders of the blood, and myelofibrosis, which is a rare blood cancer affecting bone marrow. The company earns revenue through collaboration agreements, milestones, royalties, and licensing arrangements. Geron possesses global rights to this drug. the company operates as a single segment, the development of therapeutic products for oncology.

Executives

Michelle Robertson	officer: EVP, Chief Financial Officer	C/O MOMENTA PHARMACEUTICALS, INC., 301 BINNEY STREET, CAMBRIDGE MA 02142
Elizabeth G. O'farrell	director	932 SOUTHWOOD BLVD., INCLINE VILLAGE NV 89451
Scott Alan Samuels	officer: EVP, Chief Legal Officer	919 E. HILLSDALE BLVD., SUITE 250, FOSTER CITY CA 94404
V Bryan Lawlis	director
Susan Molineaux	director	C/O CALITHERA BIOSCIENCES, INC., 343 OYSTER POINT BLVD., SUITE 200, SOUTH SAN FRANCISCO CA 94080
John A Scarlett	director, officer: Chief Executive Officer	C/O GERON CORPORATION, 230 CONSTITUTION DRIVE, MENLO PARK CA 94025
Andrew J Grethlein	officer: EVP, Technical Operations	651 GATEWAY BLVD STE 950, SOUTH SAN FRANCISCO CA 94080
Olivia Kyusuk Bloom	officer: Controller, Chief Acctg Off	C/O GERON CORP, 230 CONSTITUTION DRIVE, MENLO PARK CA 94025
John F Mcdonald	director	C/O GERON CORPORATION, 919 EAST HILLSDALE BLVD., SUITE 250, FOSTER CITY CA 94404
Faye Feller	officer: EVP, Chief Medical Officer	919 EAST HILLSDALE BOULEVARD, SUITE 250, FOSTER CITY CA 94404
Anil Kapur	officer: EVP, Corp Strategy & CCO	275 MADISON AVE, SUITE 702, NEW YORK NY 10016
Melissa Kelly	officer: VP, Oncology	230 CONSTITUTION DRIVE, MENLO PARK CA 94025
Dawn Carter Bir	director	C/O REATA PHARMACEUTICALS, INC., 2801 GATEWAY DRIVE, SUITE 150, IRVING TX 75063
Aleksandra Rizo	officer: EVP, Chief Medical Officer	C/O GERON CORPORATION, 149 COMMONWEALTH DRIVE, MENLO PARK CA 94025
Robert J. Spiegel	director	C/O GERON CORPORATION, 230 CONSTITUTION DRIVE, MENLO PARK CA 94025