Generac Holdings (Generac Holdings) Predictability Rank

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Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Generac Holdings Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

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Generac Holdings (Generac Holdings) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Industrials » Industrial Products » Generac Holdings Inc (NYSE:GNRC) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

GNRC:Mexico G84:Germany

Address

S45 W29290 Highway 59, Waukesha, WI, USA, 53189

Website

https://www.generac.com

Generac Power Systems designs and manufactures power generation equipment serving residential, commercial, and industrial markets. It offers standby generators, portable generators, lighting, outdoor power equipment, and a suite of clean energy products. Sales generated in the United States account for the majority of total sales.

Executives

Aaron Jagdfeld	director, officer: Chief Executive Officer	C/O GENERAC HOLDINGS INC., S45 W29290 HWY.59, WAUKESHA WI 53187
Rajendra Kumar Kanuru	officer: EVP, GC, Corp. Secretary	S45 W29290 HIGHWAY 59, WAUKESHA WI 53189
Robert D Dixon	director	7201 HAMILTON BOULEVARD, ALLENTOWN PA 18195-1501
Norman P Taffe	officer: President Energy Technology	3901 NORTH FIRST STREET, SAN JOSE CA 95134
Russell S Minick	officer: Executive Vice President Sales	414 EAST THIRD STREET, MUSCATINE IA 52761
Nam Tran Nguyen	director	S45 W29290 HIGHWAY 59, WAUKESHA WI 53189
York A. Ragen	officer: Chief Financial Officer	C/O GENERAC HOLDINGS INC., S45 W29290 HWY.59, WAUKESHA WI 53187
Patrick John Forsythe	officer: Exec Vice President	C/O GENERAC HOLDINGS INC., P.O. BOX 8, WAUKESHA WI 53189
Erik Wilde	officer: EVP - NAM Industrial	S45 W29290 HWY 59, C/O GENERAC HOLDINGS, INC., WAUKESHA WI 53189
Kyle Andrew Raabe	officer: EVP Consumer Power	S45 W29290 HIGHWAY 59, WAUKESHA WI 53189
Thomas F Pettit	officer: Chief Operations Officer	5695 MERRY LANE, EXCELSIOR MN 55331
Marcia J Avedon	director	C/O INGERSOLL-RAND COMPANY, 800-E BEATY STREET, DAVIDSON NC 28036
Roger Pascavis	officer: Senior VP, Operations	C/O GENERAC HOLDINGS INC., S45 W29290 HWY.59, WAUKESHA WI 53187
Jeffrey Lee Mueller	officer: President/GM - Consumer Power	GENERAC POWER SYSTEMS, INC., S45 W29290 HWY. 59, WAUKESHA WI 53189
Jenkins William D Jr	director	C/O PALO ALTO NETWORKS INC, 3000 TANNERY WAY, SANTA CLARA CA 95054