Starwood Hotels & Resorts Worldwide (Starwood Hotels & Resorts Worldwide) Predictability Rank

View and export this data going back to 1982. Start your Free Trial

What is Starwood Hotels & Resorts Worldwide Predictability Rank?

Not Rated

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Starwood Hotels & Resorts Worldwide Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

Starwood Hotels & Resorts Worldwide Predictability Rank Related Terms

Thank you for viewing the detailed overview of Starwood Hotels & Resorts Worldwide's Predictability Rank provided by GuruFocus.com. Please click on the following links to see related term pages.

Starwood Hotels & Resorts Worldwide (Starwood Hotels & Resorts Worldwide) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Consumer Cyclical » Travel & Leisure » Starwood Hotels & Resorts Worldwide Inc (NYSE:HOT) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

N/A

Address

Website

http://www.starwoodhotels.com

Starwood Hotels & Resorts Worldwide Inc was incorporated in 1980 under the laws of Maryland. It operates as a hotel and leisure company. The Company conducts its hotel and leisure business both directly and through its subsidiaries. It has 1,222 properties providing approximately 354,200 rooms in approximately 100 countries and 180,400 employees under its management at its owned and managed properties, vacation ownership resorts and corporate offices. The Company manage and operate its hotel business in three separate hotel segments: the Americas, Europe, Africa and the Middle East ("EAME"), and Asia Pacific. Its vacation ownership and residential business is a separate segment. It franchises its Luxury Collection, Westin, Le MÃ©ridien, Sheraton, Four Points by Sheraton, Aloft and Element brands and generally derive licensing and other fees from franchisees based on a fixed percentage of the franchised hotel's room revenue, as well as fees for other services, including centralized reservations, loyalty program, national and international advertising and sales and marketing. The Company's brands name includes St. Regis, The Luxury Collection, W, Westin, Le MÃ©ridien, Sheraton, Four Points, Aloft, and Element. Some of its competitors are private management firms, several are national and international chains that own and operate their own hotels, as well as manage hotels for third-party owners and sell VOIs, under a variety of brands that compete directly with its brands. It is subject to taxation at the federal, state or provincial and local levels in the U.S. and various other countries and jurisdictions.

Executives

Charlene Barshefsky	director
Lizanne Galbreath	director	LASALLE PARTNERS INC, 200 RANDOLPH DR, CHICAGO IL 60601
Kenneth S Siegel	officer: CAO & General Counsel	40 STARWOOD HOTELS & RESORTS, 111 WESTCHESTER AVE, WHITE PLAINS NY 10604
Thomas B Mangas	director, officer: Chief Executive Officer	C/O ARMSTRONG WORLD INDUSTRIES, INC., 2500 COLUMBIA AVENUE, LANCASTER PA 17603
Sergio Rivera	officer: President, The Americas	C/O STARWOOD HOTELS & RESORTS WORLDWIDE,, ONE STARPOINT, STAMFORD CT 06902
Stephen R Quazzo	director	C/O STARWOOD HOTELS & RESORTS WORLDWIDE, 44 SOUTH BROADWAY, WHITE PLAINS NY 10601
Daley Clayton C Jr	director	C/O THE PROCTER & GAMBLE COMPANY,, ONE PROCTER & GAMBLE PLAZA, CINCINNATI OH 45202
Thomas E Clarke	director	C/O NEWELL RUBBERMAID INC, THREE GLENLAKE PKWY., ATLANTA 2Q 30328
Thomas O Ryder	director	C/O READERS DIGEST ASSOCITATION INC, READERS DIGEST RD., PLEASANTVILLE NY 10570
Aylwin B Lewis	director	111 N. CANAL, SUITE 850, CHICAGO IL 60606
Eric Hippeau	director	STARWOOD HOTELS & RESORTS WORLDWIDE, 44 SOUTH BROADWAY, WHITE PLAINS NY 10601
Bruce W Duncan	director	ONE NORTH WACKER DRIVE, SUITE 4200, CHICAGO IL 60606
Adam M Aron	director, officer: CEO on an interim basis	AMC ENTERTAINMENT HOLDINGS, INC, 11500 ASH STREET, LEAWOOD KS 66211
Van Paasschen Frits D	director, officer: President and CEO	C/O STARWOOD HOTELS & RESORTS WORLDWIDE, 1111 WESTCHESTER AVENUE, WHITE PLAINS NY 10604
Vasant M Prabhu	officer: Vice Chairman & CFO	C/O SAFEWAY INC, 5918 STONERIDGE MALL ROAD, PLEASANTON CA 94588