HP (HPQ) Predictability Rank

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Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

HP Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

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HP (HPQ) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Technology » Hardware » HP Inc (NYSE:HPQ) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

HPQ:Mexico 1HPQ:Italy 7HP:Germany 7HP:Germany 7HP:Germany 7HP:Germany HPQB34:Brazil HPQ:Austria HPQ:Argentina

Address

1501 Page Mill Road, Palo Alto, CA, USA, 94304

Website

https://www.hp.com

HP (formerly Hewlett-Packard) is a behemoth in the PC and printing markets. It has focused on these markets since it exited IT infrastructure in 2015 with the split from Hewlett Packard Enterprise. HP focuses on the commercial market, but maintains sales of consumer devices and printers. The firm has a broad and global customer base, with only one third of sales coming from the U.S. It completely outsources manufacturing and relies heavily on channel partners for its sales and marketing.

Executives

Enrique Lores	officer: President, PSS	3000 HANOVER STREET, PALO ALTO CA 94304
Alex Cho	officer: President, Personal Systems	HP, 1501 PAGE MILL ROAD, PALO ALTO CA 94304
David W Meline	director	3M COMPANY, 3M OFFICE OF GENERAL COUNSEL, ST PAUL MN 55144-1000
Berkshire Hathaway Inc	10 percent owner	3555 FARNAM STREET, OMAHA NE 68131
Marie Myers	officer: Global Controller, HFS & PAO	3000 HANOVER STREET, PALO ALTO CA 94304
Subra Suresh	director	HP, 1501 PAGE MILL RD BLDG 5, PALO ALTO CA 94036
David P. Mcquarrie	officer: Chief Commercial Officer	C/O HP INC., 1501 PAGE MILL RD, PALO ALTO CA 94304
Shumeet Banerji	director	C/O HEWLETT-PACKARD COMPANY, 3000 HANOVER STREET, PALO ALTO CA 94304
Jonathan P Faust	officer: Global Controller	C/O HP INC, 1501 PAGE MILL ROAD, PALO ALTO CA 94304
Tuan Tran	officer: Pres Imaging Prtng & Solutions	1501 PAGE MILL ROAD, PALO ALTO CA 94304
Julie M Jacobs	officer: Chief Legal Officer and GC	22000 AOL WAY, DULLES VA 20166
Kristen M Ludgate	officer: Chief People Officer	3M COMPANY OFFICE OF GENERAL COUNSEL, 3M CENTER, ST. PAUL MN 55144-1000
Rucker Kim K.w.	director	KRAFT FOODS GROUP, INC., THREE LAKES DRIVE, NORTHFIELD IL 60093
Richard L Clemmer	director	P O BOX 34552, LAS VEGAS NV 89129
Judith A Miscik	director	300 RENAISSANCE CENTER, M/C: 482-C24-A68, DETROIT MI 48265