HQDA Elderly Life Network (HQDA Elderly Life Network) Predictability Rank

View and export this data going back to 2006. Start your Free Trial

Not Rated

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

HQDA Elderly Life Network Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

HQDA Elderly Life Network Predictability Rank Related Terms

Thank you for viewing the detailed overview of HQDA Elderly Life Network's Predictability Rank provided by GuruFocus.com. Please click on the following links to see related term pages.

HQDA Elderly Life Network (HQDA Elderly Life Network) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Healthcare » Healthcare Providers & Services » HQDA Elderly Life Network Corp (OTCPK:HQDA) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

N/A

Address

8780 Valley Boulevard, Suite J, Rosemead, CA, USA, 91770

Website

http://www.hqda.net

HQDA Elderly Life Network Corp is engaged in providing seniors living residences with a supportive, home life setting with care and services, including activities of daily living, life enrichment, and health and wellness in certain cities in China. The company also operates a network carrier, providing scheduled air transportation to passengers, and travel destination services to leisure travelers. It operates in a single segment being senior housing and retirement services.

Executives

Ann-marie Cederholm	director, officer: CFO	102-137 EAST 1ST STREET, NORTH VANCOUVER A1 V7L 1B2
Timothy A Coupland	director, 10 percent owner, officer: CEO	1090 SHAMAN CRES, DELTA A1 V4M 2L7
Brian David Game	director	3140 RICHMOND STREET, RICHMOND A1 V7E 2V6

HQDA Elderly Life Network (HQDA Elderly Life Network) Headlines

From GuruFocus

HQDA Elderly Life Network Corp. Acquires an 8.84-Acre Land in Shanghai (Symbol: HQDA)

By Marketwired Marketwired • 08-15-2018

HQDA Acquires 51% of Palua Airline and Tourism Companies

By GlobeNewswire GlobeNewswire • 04-19-2019

HQDA Announces New Air Route for its Subsidiary leads new tourists to Palau

By Marketwired Marketwired • 06-04-2019

HQDA ELDERLY LIFE NETWORK CORP. KICKS OFF AFTER COVID-19 PANDEMIC.

By Marketwired Marketwired • 11-09-2020

HQDA Acquires 51% of Palua Airline and Tourism Companies

By Marketwired Marketwired • 04-19-2019

Hartford Announces Securities Purchase Agreement with HQDA International Investment Holdings Ltd.

By Marketwired Marketwired • 04-09-2018