Iron Mountain (Iron Mountain) Predictability Rank

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What is Iron Mountain Predictability Rank?

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Iron Mountain Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

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Iron Mountain (Iron Mountain) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Real Estate » REITs » Iron Mountain Inc (NYSE:IRM) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

I5M:Germany I5M:Germany I1RM34:Brazil

Address

85 New Hampshire Avenue, Suite 150, Portsmouth, NH, USA, 03801

Website

https://www.ironmountain.com

Iron Mountain Inc is a record management services provider. The firm is organized as a REIT. Most of its revenue comes from its storage business, with the rest coming from value-added services. The firm primarily caters to enterprise clients in developed markets. Its business segments include Global RIM Business; Global Data Center Business; and Corporate and Other Business.

Executives

William L Meaney	director, officer: President and CEO	C/O IRON MOUNTAIN INCORPORATED, ONE FEDERAL STREET, BOSTON MA 02110
Deborah Marson	officer: EVP, General Counsel, Sec.	C/O IRON MOUNTAIN INCORPORATED, ONE FEDERAL STREET, BOSTON MA 02110
Robin Matlock	director	C/O IRON MOUNTAIN INCORPORATED, ONE FEDERAL STREET, BOSTON MA 02110
Mark Kidd	officer: SVP, GM Data Centers	C/O IRON MOUNTAIN INCORPORATED, ONE FEDERAL STREET, BOSTON MA 02110
Wing Cheung Hwang	officer: EVP&GM, Data Centers	C/O IRON MOUNTAIN INC., 85 NEW HAMPSHIRE AVE, SUITE 150, PORTSMOUTH NH 03801
John Tomovcsik	officer: EVP, G. Mgr., Rec. & Inf. Mgmt	C/O IRON MOUNTAIN INCORPORATED, ONE FEDERAL STREET, BOSTON MA 02110
Edward Baker-greene	officer: EVP, CHRO	601 MERRITT 7, NORWALK CT 06851
Wendy J. Murdock	director	1210 AVIDXCHANGE LANE, CHARLOTTE NC 28206
Samuels Theodore R. Ii	director	1990 E. GRAND AVE., EL SEGUNDO CA 90245
Barry Hytinen	officer: EVP & CFO	1000 TEMPUR WAY, LEXINGTON KY 40502
Daniel Borges	officer: VP & Chief Accounting Officer	C/O IRON MOUNTAIN INCORPORATED, ONE FEDERAL STREET, BOSTON MA 02110
Walter C Rakowich	director	14100 E 35TH PL, AURORA CO 80011
Jennifer Allerton	director	C/O IRON MOUNTAIN INCORPORATED, ONE FEDERAL STREET, BOSTON MA 02110
Greg W Mcintosh	officer: EVP, Strategic Accounts	C/O IRON MOUNTAIN INCORPORATED, ONE FEDERAL STREET, BOSTON MA 02110
Deirdre Evens	officer: EVP and Chief of Operations	10 STILLMEADOW WAY, FRAMINGHAM MA 01702