ITT (ITT) Predictability Rank

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Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

ITT Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

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ITT (ITT) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Industrials » Industrial Products » ITT Inc (NYSE:ITT) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

2II:Germany 2II:Germany

Address

100 Washington Boulevard, 6th Floor, Stamford, CT, USA, 06902

Website

https://www.itt.com

ITT is a diversified industrial conglomerate with over $3 billion in sales. After the spinoffs of Xylem and Exelis in 2011, the company's products primarily include brake pads, shock absorbers, pumps, valves, connectors, and switches. Its customers include original-equipment and Tier 1 manufacturers as well as aftermarket customers. ITT uses a network of approximately 700 independent distributors, which accounts for about one third of overall revenue. Nearly three fourths of the company's sales are made in North America and Europe. ITT's primary end markets include automotive, rail, oil and gas, aerospace and defense, chemical, mining, and general industrial.

Executives

Ryan F. Flynn	officer: See Remarks	56 TECHNOLOGY DR., IRVINE CA 92618
Don Defosset	director	C/O TEREX CORPORATION, 200 NYALA FARM ROAD, WESTPORT CT 06880
Nazzic S Keene	director	1710 SAIC DRIVE, MCLEAN VA 22102
Kevin C Berryman	director	521 WEST 57TH STREET, NEW YORK NY 10019
Maurine C. Lembesis	officer: See Remarks	8 RYANS RUN, PLEASANT VALLEY NY 12569
Carlo Ghirardo	officer: See Remarks	VIA BONINO, 5, BRA (CN) L6 12042
Fernando Roland	officer: SVP & Pres Industrial Process	100 WASHINGTON BLVD., 6TH FLOOR, STAMFORD CT 06902
Lori B. Marino	officer: SVP, General Counsel	100 WASHINGTON BLVD, STAMFORD CT 06902
De Mesa Graziano Cheryl	officer: VP, Chief Accounting Officer	80 GRASSLANDS ROAD, ELMSFORD NY 10523
Emmanuel Caprais	officer: Chief Financial Officer	1133 WESTCHESTER AVENUE, WHITE PLAINS NY 10604
Mary Elizabeth Gustafsson	officer: See Remarks	ITT CORPORATION, 1133 WESTCHESTER AVENUE, WHITE PLAINS NY 10604
Timothy H Powers	director	C/O RICHARD W DAVLES HUBBELL INC, 684 DERBY MILFORD RD, ORANGE CT 06477
Luca Savi	officer: See Remarks	C/O ITT CORPORATION, 1133 WESTCHESTER AVENUE, WHITE PLAINS NY 10604
Bartek Markowiecki	officer: SVP, Strategy & Corp Dev.	C/O ITT INC., 1133 WESTCHESTER AVENUE, WHITE PLAINS NY 10604
Orlando D Ashford	director	C/O AMERANT BANK, 220 ALHAMBRA CR., CORAL GABLES FL 33134