GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » USA » NYSE » LendingClub Corp (NYSE:LC) » Definitions » Predictability Rank
Switch to:

LendingClub (NYSE:LC) Predictability Rank

View and export this data going back to 2014. Start your Free Trial
1 (5)

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

LendingClub Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

PredictablesNon-PredictableAll stocks
Total Number of stocks57018332403
Total Lost Money61830891
Total Lost More Than 50%18412430
Total Lost More Than 90%48690
Average Gain260.6%100.0%138.1%
Median Gain150.0%13.0%39.0%
Maximum Gain2852.0%11483.0%11483.0%
Maximum Loss-100.0%-100.0%-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain12.7%6.7%8.4%
Annualized Median Gain8.9%1.1%3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank5-Star4.5-Star4-Star3.5-Star3-Star2.5-Star2-Star1-Star (non-predictable)Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks 3.3% 2.9% 3.7% 3.3% 3.3% 3.7% 3.3% 76.3% 100%
% that are in Loss (10y) 3% 10% 8% 9% 11% 18% 16% 45% 37%
Average Gain (10y) 364.6% 330.9% 278.0% 235.1% 243.5% 227.8% 154.8% 100.0% 138.1%
Median Gain (10y) 238.5% 193.5% 171.0% 159.0% 132.5% 113.5% 87.0% 13.0% 39.0%
Maximum Gainer 2228.0% 2547.0% 2452.0% 2852.0% 2432.0% 1892.0% 1807.0% 11483.0% 11483.0%
Maximum Loser -82.0% -53.0% -67.0% -100.0% -83.0% -100.0% -78.0% -100.0% -100.0%
Annualized Average Gain 15.4% 14.6% 13.2% 12.0% 12.2% 11.7% 9.1% 6.7% 8.4%
Annualized Median Gain 12.1% 10.6% 9.8% 9.3% 8.2% 7.3% 6.0% 1.1% 3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

Also read:

Part II: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part II: Role of Valuations
Part III: Intrinsic Value, Discounted Cash Flow and Margin of Safety

LendingClub Predictability Rank Related Terms

Thank you for viewing the detailed overview of LendingClub's Predictability Rank provided by Please click on the following links to see related term pages.

LendingClub (NYSE:LC) Business Description

LendingClub logo
Traded in Other Exchanges
595 Market Street, Suite 200, San Francisco, CA, USA, 94105
LendingClub Corp is a company engaged in operating an online lending marketplace platform that connects borrowers and investors for the provision of the loan facility. It offers investors access to an asset class that has generally been closed to many investors and only available on a limited basis to institutional investors. The company through the platform offer loan products such as personal, education and patient finance, small business and auto to interested investors. It generates a majority of the revenue from the transaction fees received from the platform's role in accepting and decisioning applications on behalf of the bank partners to enable loan originations.
Andrew Labenne officer: Chief Financial Officer C/O BAKKT HOLDINGS, INC., 5500 WINDWARD PKWY., SUITE 450, ALPHARETTE GA 30005
Kathryn Reimann director C/O LENDINGCLUB CORPORATION, 595 MARKET ST., #200, SAN FRANCISCO CA 94105
Syed Faiz Ahmad director 7601 SOUTHWEST PARKWAY, AUSTIN TX 78735
Adrienne Harris director 150 NORTH RIVERSIDE PLAZA, SUITE 5200, CHICAGO IL 60606
Allan R Landon director 130 MERCHANT ST 22ND FLR, HONOLULU HI 96813
Annie Armstrong officer: Chief Risk Officer C/O LENDINGCLUB CORPORATION, 595 MARKET ST. #200, SAN FRANCISCO CA 94105
Shanda Global Investment Ltd 10 percent owner 303 TWIN DOLPHIN DRIVE, #6054, REDWOOD CITY CA 94065
Michael P Zeisser director
Brandon Pace officer: General Counsel and Secretary C/O LENDINGCLUB CORPORATION, 595 MARKET ST, SUITE 200, SAN FRANCISCO CA 94105
Ronnie Momen officer: Chief Lending Officer C/O LENDINGCLUB CORPORATION, SAN FRANCISCO CA 94105
Valerie Kay officer: Chief Capital Officer C/O LENDINGCLUB CORPORATION, 71 STEVENSON ST, SUITE 1000, SAN FRANCISCO CA 94105
Bahman Koohestani officer: Chief Technology Officer 500 W. MADISON STREET, #1000, CHICAGO IL 60661
Susan C Athey director C/O EXPEDIA, INC., 333 108TH AVE NE, BELLEVUE WA 98004
Shanda Group Usa Ltd 10 percent owner 2735 SAND HILL ROAD, #140, MENLO PARK CA 94025

LendingClub (NYSE:LC) Headlines

Other Sources

LendingClub cuts 14% workforce to pare costs

By Yahoo Finance 2023-01-12