aTyr Pharma (aTyr Pharma) Predictability Rank

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Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

aTyr Pharma Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

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aTyr Pharma (aTyr Pharma) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Healthcare » Biotechnology » aTyr Pharma Inc (NAS:LIFE) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

471A:Germany

Address

10240 Sorrento Valley Road, Suite 300, San Diego, CA, USA, 92121

Website

https://www.atyrpharma.com

aTyr Pharma Inc is a biotherapeutics company engaged in the discovery and development of first-in-class medicines from its proprietary tRNA synthetase platform. The company has concentrated its research and development efforts on a newly discovered area of biology, the extracellular functionality and signaling pathways of tRNA synthetases. Its primary focus is efzofitimod, a clinical-stage product candidate which targets NRP2 to resolve chronic inflammation that can lead to fibrosis. Efzofitimod has a novel mechanism of action for potentially treating lung inflammation and fibrosis.

Executives

Sanjay Shukla	officer: Chief Medical Officer	C/O ATYR PHARMA, INC., 10240 SORRENTO VALLEY ROAD, SUITE 300, SAN DIEGO CA 92121
Paul Schimmel	director	88 SIDNEY ST, CAMBRIDGE MA 02139
Jill Marie Broadfoot	officer: Chief Financial Officer	3545 JOHN HOPKINS COURT, SUITE 250, SAN DIEGO CA 92121
Sara Zaknoen	director	C/O IGNYTA, INC., 11095 FLINTKOTE AVENUE, SUITE D, SAN DIEGO CA 92121
John K Clarke	director	C/O CARDINAL HEALTH PARTNERS, 221 NASSAU STREET, PRINCETON NJ 08542
Nancy Krueger	officer: See Remarks	C/O ATYR PHARMA, INC., 3545 JOHN HOPKINS COURT, SUITE 250, SAN DIEGO CA 92121
Svetlana Lucas	director	3545 JOHN HOPKINS COURT, SUITE 250, SAN DIEGO CA 92121
Jane A Gross	director	2401 4TH AVENUE, SUITE 1050, SEATTLE WA 98121
John Mendlein	director, officer: CEO and Executive Chairman
Ecor1 Capital Fund Qualified, L.p.	10 percent owner	357 TEHAMA STREET #3, SAN FRANCISCO CA 94103
Ashraf Amanullah	officer: Vice President, Manufacturing	C/O ATYR PHARMA, INC., 3545 JOHN HOPKINS COURT, SUITE 250, SAN DIEGO CA 92121
John T Blake	officer: Vice President, Finance	C/O SECOND SIGHT MEDICAL PRODUCTS, INC., 12744 SAN FERNANDO ROAD, SUITE 400, SYLMAR CA 91342
Timothy P Coughlin	director	339 NORTH GRANADOS AVE, SOLANA BEACH CA 92075
Jeffrey S. Hatfield	director	11080 ROSELLE STREET, SAN DIEGO CA 92121
David John King	officer: See Remarks	3545 JOHN HOPKINS COURT, SUITE 250, SAN DIEGO CA 92121