McKesson (McKesson) Predictability Rank

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What is McKesson Predictability Rank?

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

McKesson Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

McKesson Predictability Rank Related Terms

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McKesson (McKesson) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Healthcare » Medical Distribution » McKesson Corp (NYSE:MCK) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

MCK:Germany MCK:Germany M1CK34:Brazil

Address

6555 State Highway 161, Irving, TX, USA, 75039

Website

https://www.mckesson.com

McKesson Corp is one of three leading pharmaceutical wholesalers in the U.S. engaged in sourcing and distributing branded, generic, and specialty pharmaceutical products to pharmacies (retail chains, independent, and mail order), hospitals networks, and healthcare providers. Along with Cencora and Cardinal Health, the three account for over 90% of the U.S. pharmaceutical wholesale industry. Outside the U.S. market, McKesson engages in pharmaceutical wholesale and distribution in Canada. Additionally, the company supplies medical-surgical products and equipment to healthcare facilities and provides a variety of technology solutions for pharmacies.

Executives

Brian S. Tyler	officer: Chief Executive Officer	MCKESSON CORPORATION, 6555 STATE HWY 161, IRVING TX 75039
Leann B Smith	officer: EVP & Chief HR Officer	6555 NORTH STATE HWY 161, IRVING TX 75039
Thomas L Rodgers	officer: EVP, Chief Strategy & BDO	6555 NORTH STATE HWY 161, IRVING TX 75039
Lori A. Schechter	officer: EVP, Chief Legal Officer & GC	MCKESSON CORPORATION, 6555 NORTH STATE HWY 161, IRVING TX 75039
Nancy Flores	officer: EVP, CIO & CTO	6555 NORTH STATE HWY 161, IRVING TX 75039
Britt J. Vitalone	officer: EVP & CFO	MCKESSON CORPORATION, 6555 STATE HWY 161, IRVING TX 75039
Tracy Faber	officer: EVP & Chief HR Officer	6555 NORTH STATE HWY 161, IRVING TX 75039
Maria Martinez	director	THE LANDMARK @ 1 MARKET STREET, SUITE 300, SAN FRANCISCO CA 94105
Susan Nowakowski	director	14778 EL RODEO CT., RANCHO SANTA FE CA 92067
Dominic J Caruso	director	JOHNSON & JOHNSON, ONE JOHNSON & JOHNSON PLAZA, NEW BRUNSWICK NJ 08933
Donald R Knauss	director	P O BOX 1734, ATLANTA GA 30301
Bradley E Lerman	director	MEDTRONIC, INC., 710 MEDTRONIC PKWY MSLC300, MINNEAPOLIS MN 55432
Webster Roy Dunbar	director	5757 N. GREEN BAY AVENUE, MILWAUKEE WI 53209
Rutledge Napoleon B Jr	officer: SVP, Controller & CAO	2999 WILDWOOD PARKWAY, ATLANTA GA 30339
Kathleen Wilson-thompson	director	PO BOX 3599, BATTLE CREEK MI 49016-3599