M.D.C. Holdings (M.D.C. Holdings) Predictability Rank

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Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

M.D.C. Holdings Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

M.D.C. Holdings Predictability Rank Related Terms

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M.D.C. Holdings (M.D.C. Holdings) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Consumer Cyclical » Homebuilding & Construction » M.D.C. Holdings Inc (NYSE:MDC) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

MDH:Germany

Address

4350 South Monaco Street, Suite 500, Denver, CO, USA, 80237

Website

http://www.mdcholdings.com

M.D.C. Holdings Inc is an American holding company that operates home construction, mortgage, insurance, and title companies. The company focuses on single-family and residential communities via its Richmond American Homes brand in Arizona, California, Colorado, Florida, Virginia, Nevada, Utah, and Washington. MDC Holdings constructs homes for first-time and move-up homebuyers. Its segments include Homebuilding and Financial Services. Its Home construction in Colorado, California, Washington, and Arizona derive most of the company's homebuilding revenue, followed by Utah, and Virginia.

Executives

David E Blackford	director	ONE SOUTH MAIN, SUITE 1134, SALT LAKE CITY UT 84111
Reece Paris G Iii	officer: Exec. Vice Pres and CFO	4350 S. MONACO STREET, SUITE 500, DENVER CO 80237
Robert Nathaniel Martin	officer: SVP and CFO	4350 S. MONACO STREET, SUITE 500, DENVER CO 80237
Larry A Mizel	10 percent owner	4350 S. MONACO STREET, SUITE 500, DENVER CO 80237
Michael A Berman	director	4350 S. MONACO STREET, SUITE 500, DENVER CO 80237
Raymond T Baker	director	2401 21ST AVENUE SOUTH, NASHVILLE TN 37212
David D Mandarich	director, officer: President, COO and Director	4350 S. MONACO STREET, SUITE 500, DENVER CO 80237
Herbert T Buchwald	director	4350 S. MONACO STREET, SUITE 500, DENVER CO 80237
Derek R Kimmerle	officer: Chief Accounting Officer	31475 UPPER BEAR CREEK ROAD, EVERGREEN CO 80439
Rafay Farooqui	director	4350 S. MONACO STREET, SUITE 500, DENVER CO 80237
Michael L. Kaplan	officer: Sr. VP and General Counsel	M.D.C. HOLDINGS, INC., 4350 S. MONACO STREET, SUITE 500, DENVER CO 80237
David Siegel	director	4350 SOUTH MONACO STREET, SUITE 500, DENVER CO 80237
Janice Sinden	director	828 FAIRFAX STREET, DENVER CO 80220
Mizel Courtney L.	director	9301 SAWYER STREET, LOS ANGELES CA 90035
Leslie B Fox	director	5511 E. CARON STREET, PARADISE VALLEY AZ 85253