Intuit (Intuit) Predictability Rank

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Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Intuit Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

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Intuit (Intuit) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Technology » Software » Intuit Inc (NAS:INTU) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

INTU:Mexico 1INTU:Italy ITUd:UK ITU:Germany ITU:Germany ITU:Germany INTU34:Brazil INTU:Austria

Address

2700 Coast Avenue, Mountain View, CA, USA, 94043

Website

https://www.intuit.com

Intuit is a provider of small-business accounting software (QuickBooks), personal tax solutions (TurboTax), and professional tax offerings (Lacerte). Founded in the mid-1980s, Intuit controls the majority of U.S. market share for small-business accounting and DIY tax-filing software.

Executives

Alex G. Balazs	officer: EVP, Chief Technology Officer	C/O INTUIT INC., 2700 COAST AVE, MOUNTAIN VIEW CA 94043
Laura A Fennell	officer: VP, General Counsel, Corp. Sec	C/O INTUIT INC., PO BOX 7850, MOUNTAIN VIEW CA 94039-7850
Raul Vazquez	director	500 STAPLES DR., FRAMINGHAM MA 01702
Sasan K Goodarzi	officer: Senior Vice President	C/O INTUIT INC., 2700 COAST AVENUE, MOUNTAIN VIEW CA 94043
Sandeep Aujla	officer: EVP and CFO	C/O INTUIT INC., 2700 COAST AVENUE, MOUNTAIN VIEW CA 94043
Mark P. Notarainni	officer: EVP, Consumer Group	C/O INTUIT INC., 2700 COAST AVENUE, MOUNTAIN VIEW CA 94043
Marianna Tessel	officer: EVP, Chief Technology Officer	C/O INTUIT INC., 2700 COAST AVENUE, MOUNTAIN VIEW CA 94043
Lauren D Hotz	officer: VP, Chief Accounting Officer	C/O INTUIT INC., 2700 COAST AVENUE, MOUNTAIN VIEW CA 94043
James Alexander Chriss	officer: EVP and GM SBSEG	C/O INTUIT INC., 2700 COAST AVENUE, MOUNTAIN VIEW CA 94043
Kerry J Mclean	officer: SVP, General Counsel	C/O INTUIT INC., 2700 COAST AVENUE, MOUNTAIN VIEW CA 94043
Michelle M Clatterbuck	officer: EVP and CFO	C/O INTUIT INC., 2700 COAST AVENUE, MOUNTAIN VIEW CA 94043
Ryan Roslansky	director	C/O GODADDY INC., 2155 E. GODADDY WAY, TEMPE AZ 85284
Eric S. Yuan	director	C/O ZOOM VIDEO COMMUNICATIONS, INC., 55 ALMADEN BOULEVARD, 6TH FLOOR, SAN JOSE CA 95113
Eve B Burton	director	770 BROADWAY, NEW YORK NY 10003
Varun Krishna	officer: EVP, Consumer Group	2700 COAST AVENUE, MOUNTAIN VIEW CA 94043