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M/I Homes (M/I Homes) Predictability Rank


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4.5 (5)

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

M/I Homes Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

PredictablesNon-PredictableAll stocks
Total Number of stocks57018332403
Total Lost Money61830891
Total Lost More Than 50%18412430
Total Lost More Than 90%48690
Average Gain260.6%100.0%138.1%
Median Gain150.0%13.0%39.0%
Maximum Gain2852.0%11483.0%11483.0%
Maximum Loss-100.0%-100.0%-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain12.7%6.7%8.4%
Annualized Median Gain8.9%1.1%3.1%


















For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank5-Star4.5-Star4-Star3.5-Star3-Star2.5-Star2-Star1-Star (non-predictable)Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks 3.3% 2.9% 3.7% 3.3% 3.3% 3.7% 3.3% 76.3% 100%
% that are in Loss (10y) 3% 10% 8% 9% 11% 18% 16% 45% 37%
Average Gain (10y) 364.6% 330.9% 278.0% 235.1% 243.5% 227.8% 154.8% 100.0% 138.1%
Median Gain (10y) 238.5% 193.5% 171.0% 159.0% 132.5% 113.5% 87.0% 13.0% 39.0%
Maximum Gainer 2228.0% 2547.0% 2452.0% 2852.0% 2432.0% 1892.0% 1807.0% 11483.0% 11483.0%
Maximum Loser -82.0% -53.0% -67.0% -100.0% -83.0% -100.0% -78.0% -100.0% -100.0%
Annualized Average Gain 15.4% 14.6% 13.2% 12.0% 12.2% 11.7% 9.1% 6.7% 8.4%
Annualized Median Gain 12.1% 10.6% 9.8% 9.3% 8.2% 7.3% 6.0% 1.1% 3.1%
















For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

Also read:

Part II: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part II: Role of Valuations
Part III: Intrinsic Value, Discounted Cash Flow and Margin of Safety

M/I Homes Predictability Rank Related Terms

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M/I Homes (M/I Homes) Business Description

Industry
GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Consumer Cyclical » Homebuilding & Construction » M/I Homes Inc (NYSE:MHO) » Definitions » Predictability Rank
Comparable Companies
TPH DFH CVCO CCS MDC LGIH GRBK SKY KBH MTH DHI LEN NVR PHM TSE:1928 TOL IBP TSE:1911 TMHC LSE:BKG
Traded in Other Exchanges
4MI:Germany 4MI:Germany
Address
4131 Worth Avenue, Suite 500, Columbus, OH, USA, 43219
Website
https://www.mihomes.com
M/I Homes Inc is an American construction company that focuses on residential construction. It consists of two distinct operations: homebuilding and financial services. The homebuilding operations are spread into the Midwest, Mid-Atlantic, and Southern regions and the financial services operations support homebuilding operations by providing mortgage loans and title services to the customers of homebuilding operations. Homebuilding operations comprise the most significant portion of the revenue. The company builds homes and communities that target entry-level, move-up, and luxury homebuyers.
Executives
Susan E Krohne officer: Chief Legal Officer, Secretary 4131 WORTH AVE, SUITE 500, COLUMBUS OH 43219
Phillip G Creek director, officer: Ex. Vice President and CFO
Robert H Schottenstein director, officer: Chairman, CEO & President
Ann Marie Hunker officer: Principal Accounting Officer
Bruce A Soll director 17655 WATERVIEW PKWY, DALLAS TX 75252
Norman L Traeger director
J Thomas Mason director, officer: Ex. VP & Chief Legal Officer 3 EASTON OVAL, SUITE 500, COLUMBUS OH 43219
Kumi D Walker director 17 STANBERRY AVENUE, BEXLEY OH 43209
William H Carter director C/O MOMENTIVE SPECIALTY CHEMICALS INC., 180 EAST BROAD STREET, COLUMBUS OH 43215
Michael P Glimcher director C/O GLIMCHER REALTY TRUST, 180 EAST BROAD STREET, COLUMBUS OH 43215
Nancy J Kramer director
Friedrich Km Bohm director
Elizabeth K Ingram director 555 W. GOODALE STREET, COLUMBUS OH 43215
Thomas D Igoe director
Sharen J Turney director THREE LIMITED PARKWAY, COLUMBUS OH 43230