Morningstar (Morningstar) Predictability Rank

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Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Morningstar Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

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Morningstar (Morningstar) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Financial Services » Capital Markets » Morningstar Inc (NAS:MORN) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

MRS:Germany

Address

22 West Washington Street, Chicago, IL, USA, 60602

Website

https://www.morningstar.com

Morningstar Inc is a provider of independent investment research to financial advisers, asset managers, and investors. The company focuses its operations on two core sectors: data and research. It offers data on investments such as mutual funds, stocks, exchange-traded funds, closed-end funds, separate accounts, and variable annuities. Further, the company tracks real-time market data of equity, derivative, and currency exchanges and other investments. In its research operation, Morningstar offers analyst research on passive and active mutual funds, alternative funds, and college saving plans. Morningstar's largest share of revenue is generated in the United States of America.

Executives

Joseph D Mansueto	director, 10 percent owner, officer: Executive Chairman	C/O MORNINGSTAR, INC., 225 WEST WACKER DRIVE, CHICAGO IL 60606
Robin Diamonte	director	C/O MORNINGSTAR, INC., 22 WEST WASHINGTON ST., CHICAGO IL 60602
Gail S Landis	director	MORNINGSTAR, INC., 22 WEST WASHINGTON STREET, CHICAGO IL 60602
Daniel Joseph Dunn	officer: Chief Revenue Officer	C/O MORNINGSTAR, INC., 22 WEST WASHINGTON STREET, CHICAGO IL 60602
Caroline J Tsay	director	C/O ROSETTA STONE INC., 1919 NORTH LYNN STREET, 7TH FLOOR, ARLINGTON VA 22209
Bevin Desmond	officer: Head of Talent and Culture	C/O MORNINGSTAR, INC., 225 WEST WACKER DRIVE, CHICAGO IL 60606
William M Lyons	director	225 WEST WACKER DRIVE, CHICAGO IL 60606
Cheryl A Francis	director	8237 GREYSTONE COURT, BURR RIDGE IL 60527
Doniel Sutton	director	C/O MORNINGSTAR, INC., 22 WEST WASHINGTON STREET, CHICAGO IL 60602
Steven N Kaplan	director	1101 EAST 58TH STREET, CHICAGO IL 60637
Stephen Joynt	director	C/O MORNINGSTAR, INC., 22 W. WASHINGTON STREET, CHICAGO IL 60602
Kimberly J Mcgarry	officer: Global Controller & CAO	22 WEST WASHINGTON STREET, 6TH FLOOR, CHICAGO IL 60602
Jason Dubinsky	officer: Chief Financial Officer	C/O MORNINGSTAR, INC., 22 W. WASHINGTON STREET, CHICAGO IL 60602
Kunal Kapoor	director, officer: CEO	MORNINGSTAR, INC., 22 WEST WASHINGTON STREET, CHICAGO IL 60602
Jack Noonan	director	17000 GULF BLVD, UNIT B, N. REDINGTON BEACH FL 33708