1 (5)
Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:
1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.
It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.
GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.
Mercury Systems Predictability Rank Calculation
In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.
Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:
Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.
The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.
Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns
| Predictables | Non-Predictable | All stocks |
|---|
| Total Number of stocks | 570 | 1833 | 2403 |
| Total Lost Money | 61 | 830 | 891 |
| Total Lost More Than 50% | 18 | 412 | 430 |
| Total Lost More Than 90% | 4 | 86 | 90 |
| Average Gain | 260.6% | 100.0% | 138.1% |
| Median Gain | 150.0% | 13.0% | 39.0% |
| Maximum Gain | 2852.0% | 11483.0% | 11483.0% |
| Maximum Loss | -100.0% | -100.0% | -100.0% |
| Annualized Average Gain | 12.7% | 6.7% | 8.4% |
| Annualized Median Gain | 8.9% | 1.1% | 3.1% |
For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.
| Predictability Rank | 5-Star | 4.5-Star | 4-Star | 3.5-Star | 3-Star | 2.5-Star | 2-Star | 1-Star (non-predictable) | Average among all |
|---|
| % Out of All 2403 Stocks |
3.3% |
2.9% |
3.7% |
3.3% |
3.3% |
3.7% |
3.3% |
76.3% |
100% |
| % that are in Loss (10y) |
3% |
10% |
8% |
9% |
11% |
18% |
16% |
45% |
37% |
| Average Gain (10y) |
364.6% |
330.9% |
278.0% |
235.1% |
243.5% |
227.8% |
154.8% |
100.0% |
138.1% |
| Median Gain (10y) |
238.5% |
193.5% |
171.0% |
159.0% |
132.5% |
113.5% |
87.0% |
13.0% |
39.0% |
| Maximum Gainer |
2228.0% |
2547.0% |
2452.0% |
2852.0% |
2432.0% |
1892.0% |
1807.0% |
11483.0% |
11483.0% |
| Maximum Loser |
-82.0% |
-53.0% |
-67.0% |
-100.0% |
-83.0% |
-100.0% |
-78.0% |
-100.0% |
-100.0% |
| Annualized Average Gain |
15.4% |
14.6% |
13.2% |
12.0% |
12.2% |
11.7% |
9.1% |
6.7% |
8.4% |
| Annualized Median Gain |
12.1% |
10.6% |
9.8% |
9.3% |
8.2% |
7.3% |
6.0% |
1.1% |
3.1% |
For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank
Also read:
Part II: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part II: Role of Valuations
Part III: Intrinsic Value, Discounted Cash Flow and Margin of Safety
Mercury Systems (Mercury Systems) Business Description
Traded in Other Exchanges
Address
50 Minuteman Road, Andover, MA, USA, 01810
Mercury Systems Inc is a commercial technology company serving the aerospace and defense industry. The company envisions, creates and delivers secure open architecture solutions powering a broad range of mission-critical applications in the challenging and demanding environments. Inspired by its purpose of delivering Innovation that Matters, By and For People Who Matter, Mercury helps make the world a safer, more secure place for all.
Executives
| Michelle M Mccarthy |
officer: SVP, CAO |
50 MINUTEMAN ROAD, ANDOVER MA 01810 |
| Wells Charles Roger Iv |
officer: EVP President Microelectronics |
5255 GROVEMONT DRIVE, ELKRIDGE MD 21075 |
| Orlando D Carvalho |
director |
6801 ROCKLEDGE DRIVE, BETHESDA MD 20817 |
| Debora A Plunkett |
director |
6501 LEGACY DRIVE, PLANO TX 75024 |
| Barry R Nearhos |
director |
C/O VIRTUSA CORPORATION, 200 WEST PARK DRIVE, WESTBOROUGH MA 01581 |
| Lisa S Disbrow |
director |
50 MINUTEMAN ROAD, ANDOVER MA 01810 |
| Allen Couture |
officer: EVP, Execution Excellence |
C/O MERCURY SYSTEMS, INC., 50 MINUTEMAN ROAD, ANDOVER MA 01810 |
| James Mitch Stevison |
officer: EVP, President Mission Systems |
103 SANSBERRY LANE, MADISON AL 35376 |
| Steven Ratner |
officer: EVP, CHRO |
C/O MERCURY SYSTEMS, INC., 50 MINUTEMAN ROAD, ANDOVER MA 01810 |
| Stephanie Georges |
officer: EVP, CCO |
1300 WEST 120TH AVENUE, WESTMINSTER CO 80234 |
| Christopher C Cambria |
officer: EVP, Gen Counsel & Secretary |
C/O GENCORP INC., P.O. BOX 537012, SACRAMENTO CA 95853-7012 |
| Jana Partners Llc |
director, other: See Remarks |
767 FIFTH AVENUE, 8TH FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10153 |
| Howard L Lance |
director |
C/O SUMMIT MATERIALS, INC., 1550 WYNKOOP STREET, 3RD FLOOR, DENVER CO 80202 |
| William L Ballhaus |
director, officer: President & CEO |
3190 FAIRVIEW PARK DRIVE, SUITE 700, FALLS CHURCH VA 22042 |
| Roger A Krone |
director |
|
Quick Browse
Personalize
Premium Gurus 
Create New Portfolio
Portfolio Contest
MRCY has been successfully added to your