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MasTec (NYSE:MTZ) Predictability Rank


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2.5 (5)

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.


MasTec Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

PredictablesNon-PredictableAll stocks
Total Number of stocks57018332403
Total Lost Money61830891
Total Lost More Than 50%18412430
Total Lost More Than 90%48690
Average Gain260.6%100.0%138.1%
Median Gain150.0%13.0%39.0%
Maximum Gain2852.0%11483.0%11483.0%
Maximum Loss-100.0%-100.0%-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain12.7%6.7%8.4%
Annualized Median Gain8.9%1.1%3.1%


















For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank5-Star4.5-Star4-Star3.5-Star3-Star2.5-Star2-Star1-Star (non-predictable)Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks 3.3% 2.9% 3.7% 3.3% 3.3% 3.7% 3.3% 76.3% 100%
% that are in Loss (10y) 3% 10% 8% 9% 11% 18% 16% 45% 37%
Average Gain (10y) 364.6% 330.9% 278.0% 235.1% 243.5% 227.8% 154.8% 100.0% 138.1%
Median Gain (10y) 238.5% 193.5% 171.0% 159.0% 132.5% 113.5% 87.0% 13.0% 39.0%
Maximum Gainer 2228.0% 2547.0% 2452.0% 2852.0% 2432.0% 1892.0% 1807.0% 11483.0% 11483.0%
Maximum Loser -82.0% -53.0% -67.0% -100.0% -83.0% -100.0% -78.0% -100.0% -100.0%
Annualized Average Gain 15.4% 14.6% 13.2% 12.0% 12.2% 11.7% 9.1% 6.7% 8.4%
Annualized Median Gain 12.1% 10.6% 9.8% 9.3% 8.2% 7.3% 6.0% 1.1% 3.1%
















For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

Also read:

Part II: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part II: Role of Valuations
Part III: Intrinsic Value, Discounted Cash Flow and Margin of Safety

MasTec Predictability Rank Related Terms

Thank you for viewing the detailed overview of MasTec's Predictability Rank provided by GuruFocus.com. Please click on the following links to see related term pages.


MasTec (NYSE:MTZ) Business Description

MasTec logo
Traded in Other Exchanges
Address
800 S. Douglas Road, 12th Floor, Coral Gables, FL, USA, 33134
MasTec Inc is a leading infrastructure construction company operating primarily throughout North America. Its principal activities include engineering, building, installation, maintenance, and upgrades of communications, energy, and utility infrastructure. The company installs wireless, wireline, and satellite communications; oil and gas pipeline infrastructure; conventional and renewable power generation; and other industrial systems. MasTec has five operating segments: Communications, Oil and Gas, Power Delivery, Clean Energy and Infrastructure, and Others. The majority of its revenue is derived from the Communications segments. The company markets services individually and in combination with other companies to provide a wide range of solutions for customers.
Executives
Parker Ava L director 1469 HARRINGTON PARK DRIVE JACKSONVILLE FL 32225
Palomarez Javier Alberto director 3405 PINNEY POINT DRIVE FLOWER MOUND TX 75022
Pita George officer: CFO 3000 NW 107TH AVENUE MIAMI FL 33172
Restrepo Daniel A director C/O MASTEC, INC. 800 S. DOUGLAS RD., 12TH FLOOR CORAL GABLES FL 33134
Harris Ray officer: President 800 DOUGLAS ROAD 12TH FLOOR - MASTEC CORAL GABLES FL 33134
Apple Robert E officer: Chief Operations Officer 800 S DOUGLAS ROAD 12TH FLOOR CORAL GABLES FL 33134
De Cardenas Alberto I officer: Executive Vice President 800 S DOUGLAS ROAD 12TH FLOOR CORAL GABLES X1 33134
Csiszar Ernst N director 2600 S RIVER ROAD DES PLAINES IL 60018
Floerke Gregory Scott officer: Chief Operations Officer C/O MARKWEST ENERGY PARTNERS, L.P. 1515 ARAPAHOE STREET, TOWER 1, SUITE 160 DENVER CO 80202
Dwyer Robert J director 880 SOUTH OCEAN BOULEVARD PALM BEACH FL 33480
Campbell C Robert officer: EVP & CFO 800 DOUGLAS ROAD 12TH FLOOR CORAL GABLES FL 33134
De Cespedes Carlos M director 3075 NW 107TH AVE MIAMI FL 33172
Jaumot Frank E director 190 SE 19TH AVENUE POMPANO BEACH FL 33060
Nearing Michael officer: General Counsel and EVP 800 DOUGLAS ROAD 12TH FL CORAL GABLES FL 33134
Hudson Sherrill W director 201 SOUTH BISCAYNE BOULEVARD 34TH FLOOR, MIAMI CENTER MIAMI FL 33131

MasTec (NYSE:MTZ) Headlines

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