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AquaBounty Technologies Predictability Rank


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Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.


AquaBounty Technologies Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

PredictablesNon-PredictableAll stocks
Total Number of stocks57018332403
Total Lost Money61830891
Total Lost More Than 50%18412430
Total Lost More Than 90%48690
Average Gain260.6%100.0%138.1%
Median Gain150.0%13.0%39.0%
Maximum Gain2852.0%11483.0%11483.0%
Maximum Loss-100.0%-100.0%-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain12.7%6.7%8.4%
Annualized Median Gain8.9%1.1%3.1%


















For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank5-Star4.5-Star4-Star3.5-Star3-Star2.5-Star2-Star1-Star (non-predictable)Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks 3.3% 2.9% 3.7% 3.3% 3.3% 3.7% 3.3% 76.3% 100%
% that are in Loss (10y) 3% 10% 8% 9% 11% 18% 16% 45% 37%
Average Gain (10y) 364.6% 330.9% 278.0% 235.1% 243.5% 227.8% 154.8% 100.0% 138.1%
Median Gain (10y) 238.5% 193.5% 171.0% 159.0% 132.5% 113.5% 87.0% 13.0% 39.0%
Maximum Gainer 2228.0% 2547.0% 2452.0% 2852.0% 2432.0% 1892.0% 1807.0% 11483.0% 11483.0%
Maximum Loser -82.0% -53.0% -67.0% -100.0% -83.0% -100.0% -78.0% -100.0% -100.0%
Annualized Average Gain 15.4% 14.6% 13.2% 12.0% 12.2% 11.7% 9.1% 6.7% 8.4%
Annualized Median Gain 12.1% 10.6% 9.8% 9.3% 8.2% 7.3% 6.0% 1.1% 3.1%
















For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

Also read:

Part II: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part II: Role of Valuations
Part III: Intrinsic Value, Discounted Cash Flow and Margin of Safety

AquaBounty Technologies Predictability Rank Related Terms

Thank you for viewing the detailed overview of AquaBounty Technologies's Predictability Rank provided by GuruFocus.com. Please click on the following links to see related term pages.


AquaBounty Technologies Business Description

AquaBounty Technologies logo
Industry
Traded in Other Exchanges
Address
2 Mill and Main Place, Suite 395, Maynard, MA, USA, 01754
AquaBounty Technologies Inc is engaged in the field of land-based aquaculture and the use of technology for improving its productivity and sustainability. The company's objective is to ensure the availability of high-quality seafood to meet global consumer demand while addressing critical production constraints in the most popular farmed species.
Executives
Kirk Randal J 10 percent owner 1881 GROVE AVENUE RADFORD VA 24141
Czypinski Alana director, 10 percent owner 1881 GROVE AVENUE RADFORD VA 24141
Turk James C Jr director TWO CLOCK TOWER PLACE SUITE 395 MAYNARD MA 01745
Frank David A officer: See Remarks 2 MILL & MAIN PLACE, SUITE 395 MAYNARD MA 01754
Sterling Rick L. director 20374 SENECA MEADOWS PARKWAY GERMANTOWN MD 20876
Huber Richard L director 2 MILL & MAIN PLACE, SUITE 395 MAYNARD MA 01754
Fisher Theodore John director 1881 GROVE AVENUE RADFORD VA 24141
St.clare Christine director 405 EAGLEVIEW BLVD. EXTON PA 19341
Clothier Richard J director TWO CLOCK TOWER PLACE SUITE 395 MAYNARD MA 01745
Rojas Alejandro officer: See Remarks TWO CLOCK TOWER PLACE SUITE 395 MAYNARD MA 01745
Wulf Sylvia director, officer: See Remarks 2 MILL & MAIN PLACE, SUITE 395 MAYNARD MA 01754
Olsen Angela M officer: See Remarks C/O AQUABOUNTY TECHNOLOGIES, INC. 2 MILL & MAIN PLACE, SUITE 395 MAYNARD MA 01754
Intrexon Corp 10 percent owner 20374 SENECA MEADOWS PARKWAY GERMANTOWN MD 20876
Perez Jeffrey Thomas director 20358 SENECA MEADOWS PARKWAY GERMANTOWN MD 20876
Stotish Ronald L director, officer: See Remarks 2 MILL & MAIN PLACE, SUITE 395 MAYNARD MA 01754

AquaBounty Technologies Headlines

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