Biogen (Biogen) Predictability Rank

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Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Biogen Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

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Biogen (Biogen) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Healthcare » Drug Manufacturers » Biogen Inc (NAS:BIIB) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

BIIB:Mexico 1BIIB:Italy IDP:Germany IDP:Germany IDP:Germany IDP:Germany BIIB34:Brazil BIIB:Austria BIIB:Argentina

Address

225 Binney Street, Cambridge, MA, USA, 02142

Website

https://www.biogen.com

Biogen and Idec merged in 2003, combining forces to market Biogen's multiple sclerosis drug Avonex and Idec's cancer drug Rituxan. Today, Rituxan and next-generation antibody Gazyva are marketed via a collaboration with Roche. Biogen also markets novel multiple sclerosis drugs Plegridy, Tysabri, Tecfidera, and Vumerity. In Japan, Biogen's MS portfolio is copromoted by Eisai. Hemophilia therapies Eloctate and Alprolix (partnered with Sobi) were spun off as part of Bioverativ in 2017. Biogen's newer products include Spinraza (SMA, with partner Ionis), Leqembi (Alzheimers, with partner Eisai), Skyclarys (Friedreich's Ataxia, Reata), Zurzuvae (post-partum depression, Sage), and Qalsody (ALS, Ionis). Biogen has several drug candidates in phase 3 trials in neurology-related fields.

Executives

Priya Singhal	officer: Head of Development	C/O ZAFGEN, INC., 175 PORTLAND STREET 4TH FL, BOSTON MA 02114
Jane Grogan	officer: Head of Research	BIOGEN INC., 225 BINNEY STREET, CAMBRIDGE MA 02142
Susan Langer	director	BIOGEN INC., 225 BINNEY STREET, CAMBRIDGE MA 02142
Ginger Gregory	officer: EVP, Human Resources	C/O BIOGEN INC., 225 BINNEY ST., CAMBRIDGE MA 02142
Adam Keeney	officer: Head of Corporate Development	BIOGEN INC., 225 BINNEY STREET, CAMBRIDGE MA 02142
Christopher Viehbacher	director, officer: President and CEO	C/O AXCELLA HEALTH, INC., 840 MEMORIAL DRIVE, CAMBRIDGE MA 02139
Susan H Alexander	officer: EVP, General Counsel	C/O BIOGEN IDEC INC., 14 CAMBRIDGE CENTER, CAMBRIDGE MA 02142
Nicole Murphy	officer: Head of Pharm Ops and Tech	BIOGEN INC., 225 BINNEY STREET, CAMBRIDGE MA 02142
Rachid Izzar	officer: Head of Alzheimer's Disease	BIOGEN INC., 225 BINNEY STREET, CAMBRIDGE MA 02142
Chirfi Guindo	officer: EVP Glob. Mkt Acc & Cust Innov	C/O BIOGEN INC., 225 BINNEY ST., CAMBRIDGE MA 02142
Alfred Sandrock	officer: Grp SVP, Chief Medical Officer	14 CAMBRIDGE CENTER, CAMBRIDGE MA 02142
Brian S Posner	director	14 CAMBRIDGE CENTER, CAMBRIDGE MA 02142
Jones William D /ca/	director
Maria C Freire	director	C/O ALEXANDRIA REAL ESTATE EQUITIES, INC, 26 NORTH EUCLID AVENUE, PASADENA CA 91101
Jesus B Mantas	director	BIOGEN INC., 225 BINNEY STREET, CAMBRIDGE MA 02142