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Cheesecake Factory Predictability Rank


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Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.


Competitive Comparison

For the Restaurants subindustry, Cheesecake Factory's Predictability Rank, along with its competitors' market caps and Predictability Rank data, can be viewed below:

* Competitive companies are chosen from companies within the same industry, with headquarter located in same country, with closest market capitalization; x-axis shows the market cap, and y-axis shows the term value; the bigger the dot, the larger the market cap. Note that "N/A" values will not show up in the chart.

   

Cheesecake Factory Predictability Rank Distribution

For the Restaurants industry and Consumer Cyclical sector, Cheesecake Factory's Predictability Rank distribution charts can be found below:

* The bar in red indicates where Cheesecake Factory's Predictability Rank falls into.



Cheesecake Factory Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

PredictablesNon-PredictableAll stocks
Total Number of stocks57018332403
Total Lost Money61830891
Total Lost More Than 50%18412430
Total Lost More Than 90%48690
Average Gain260.6%100.0%138.1%
Median Gain150.0%13.0%39.0%
Maximum Gain2852.0%11483.0%11483.0%
Maximum Loss-100.0%-100.0%-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain12.7%6.7%8.4%
Annualized Median Gain8.9%1.1%3.1%


















For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank5-Star4.5-Star4-Star3.5-Star3-Star2.5-Star2-Star1-Star (non-predictable)Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks 3.3% 2.9% 3.7% 3.3% 3.3% 3.7% 3.3% 76.3% 100%
% that are in Loss (10y) 3% 10% 8% 9% 11% 18% 16% 45% 37%
Average Gain (10y) 364.6% 330.9% 278.0% 235.1% 243.5% 227.8% 154.8% 100.0% 138.1%
Median Gain (10y) 238.5% 193.5% 171.0% 159.0% 132.5% 113.5% 87.0% 13.0% 39.0%
Maximum Gainer 2228.0% 2547.0% 2452.0% 2852.0% 2432.0% 1892.0% 1807.0% 11483.0% 11483.0%
Maximum Loser -82.0% -53.0% -67.0% -100.0% -83.0% -100.0% -78.0% -100.0% -100.0%
Annualized Average Gain 15.4% 14.6% 13.2% 12.0% 12.2% 11.7% 9.1% 6.7% 8.4%
Annualized Median Gain 12.1% 10.6% 9.8% 9.3% 8.2% 7.3% 6.0% 1.1% 3.1%
















For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

Also read:

Part II: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part II: Role of Valuations
Part III: Intrinsic Value, Discounted Cash Flow and Margin of Safety

Cheesecake Factory Predictability Rank Related Terms

Thank you for viewing the detailed overview of Cheesecake Factory's Predictability Rank provided by GuruFocus.com. Please click on the following links to see related term pages.


Cheesecake Factory Business Description

Cheesecake Factory logo
Industry
Consumer Cyclical » Restaurants NAICS : 722511 SIC : 5812
Traded in Other Exchanges
Address
26901 Malibu Hills Road, Calabasas Hills, CA, USA, 91301
Cheesecake Factory owns and operates restaurants in the United States and Canada under brands that include The Cheesecake Factory, North Italia, and a collection within the Fox Restaurants Concepts subsidiary. The company's international presence, in the Middle East and Mexico, is through licensing agreements with third parties. The company also has a bakery division that produces cheesecakes and other baked products for sale in its restaurants, international licensees, and third-party bakery customers. The company has four operating business segments: The Cheesecake Factory restaurants, North Italia, other FRC, and others. Most of the company's revenue comes from The Cheesecake Factory restaurants segment.
Executives
Meyer Janice L. director 26901 MALIBU HILLS ROAD CALABASAS CA 91301
Ginsberg Paul D. director C/O ROARK CAPITAL 1180 PEACHTREE STREET NE, SUITE 2500 ATLANTA GA 30309
Rc Cake Holdings Llc 10 percent owner 1180 PEACHTREE STREET NE SUITE 2500 ATLANTA GA 30309
Ames Edie A director C/O MORTONS RESTATURANT GROUP, INC. 325 LASALLE STREET, SUITE 500 CHICAGO IL 60610
Overton David director, officer: Chairman and C.E.O. PUBLIC "-//W3C//DTD HTML 4.0 Transitional//EN"> Ownership Information: OVERTON DAVID a.header:link {color: #3b4fae; font-weight: bold; text-decoration: underline;} a.header:visited {color: #3b4fae; font-weight: bold; text-decoration: underline;} a.header:hover {color: #191970;}
Slomann Cheryl officer: Principal Accounting Officer 6450 VIA REAL CURPINTERIA CA 93013
Pittaway David Bruce director 150 E 58TH ST STE 3700 NEW YORK NY 10155
Clark Matthew Eliot officer: Exec VP, CFO 26901 MALIBU HILLS ROAD CALABASAS HILLS CA 91301
Gordon David M officer: President C/O THE CHEESECAKE FACTORY INCORPORATED 26901 MALIBU HILLS DRIVE CALABASAS HILLS CA 91301
Carango Keith officer: President (Subsidiary) 26901 MALIBU HILLS ROAD CALABASAS HILLS CA 91301
May Scarlett officer: EVP, General Counsel 26901 MALIBU HILLS ROAD CALABASAS HILLS CA 91301
Mindel Laurence B director IL FORNAIO AMERICA CORP 770 TAMAPAIS DR STE 400 CORTE MADERA CA 94925
Cappello Alexander L director C/O THE CHEESECAKE FACTORY INC 26901 MALIBU HILLS ROAD CALABASAS HILLS CA 91301
Zurzolo Debby R officer: Exec VP, Gen Counsel & Secy PUBLIC "-//W3C//DTD HTML 4.0 Transitional//EN"> Ownership Information: ZURZOLO DEBBY R a.header:link {color: #3b4fae; font-weight: bold; text-decoration: underline;} a.header:visited {color: #3b4fae; font-weight: bold; text-decoration: underline;} a.header:hover {color: #191970;}
Byfuglin Max S officer: President (Subsidiary) PUBLIC "-//W3C//DTD HTML 4.0 Transitional//EN"> Ownership Information: BYFUGLIN MAX S a.header:link {color: #3b4fae; font-weight: bold; text-decoration: underline;} a.header:visited {color: #3b4fae; font-weight: bold; text-decoration: underline;} a.header:hover {color: #191970;}

Cheesecake Factory Headlines

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