Cara Therapeutics (Cara Therapeutics) Predictability Rank

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What is Cara Therapeutics Predictability Rank?

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Cara Therapeutics Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

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Cara Therapeutics (Cara Therapeutics) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Healthcare » Biotechnology » Cara Therapeutics Inc (NAS:CARA) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

69C:Germany 69C:Germany

Address

107 Elm Street, 9th Floor, 4 Stamford Plaza, Stamford, CT, USA, 06902

Website

https://www.caratherapeutics.com

Cara Therapeutics Inc is an emerging biotechnology company involved in the development of novel therapeutics to treat human diseases associated with inflammation, pain, and pruritus. Cara's most advanced compound, CR845, aims to treat acute pain and pruritus. This patented compound has analgesic, anti-inflammatory, and antipruritic properties that can be used for multiple therapeutic applications. Additionally, Cara's objective is to use its proprietary drug-screening technology to develop a future pipeline of first-in-class molecules with analgesic and anti-inflammatory features.

Executives

Christopher Posner	director	C/O CARA THERAPEUTICS, INC., 4 STAMFORD PLAZA, 107 ELM STREET, 9TH FL, STAMFORD CT 06902
Helen M Boudreau	director	200 TECHNOLOGY SQUARE, 4TH FLOOR, CAMBRIDGE MA 02139
Joana Goncalves	officer: Chief Medical Officer	C/O CARA THERAPEUTICS, INC., 4 STAMFORD PLAZA, 107 ELM STREET, 9TH FL, STAMFORD CT 06902
Scott Terrillion	officer: Sec'y; Chief Compliance & G.C.	C/O CARA THERAPEUTICS, INC., 4 STAMFORD PLAZA, 107 ELM STREET, 9TH FL, STAMFORD CT 06902
Menzaghi Frederique Ph.d.	officer: VP-Research & Development	C/O CARA THERAPEUTICS, INC., 1 PARROTT DRIVE, SHELTON CT 06484
Moltke Lisa Von	director	C/O SERESTHERAPEUTICS, INC., 200 SIDNEY STREET, CAMBRIDGE MA 02139
Martin Vogelbaum	director	675 ALMANOR AVE, SUNNYVALE CA 94085
Ryan D Maynard	officer: Chief Financial Officer	RIGEL PHARMACEUTICALS, INC., 1180 VETERANS BLVD., SOUTH SAN FRANCISCO CA 94080
Csl Ltd	10 percent owner
Jeffrey L. Ives	director	C/O CARA THERAPEUTICS, INC., 1 PARROTT DRIVE, SHELTON CT 06484
Bains Harrison M Jr	director
Thomas Charles Reilly	officer: Chief Financial Officer	C/O CARA THERAPEUTICS, INC., 4 STAMFORD PLAZA, 107 ELM STREET, STAMFORD CT 06902
Vifor Fresenius Medical Care Renal Pharma Ltd.	10 percent owner	RECHENSTRASSE 37, CH-9014, ST. GALLEN V8 9014
Vifor (international) Ltd	10 percent owner	RECHENSTRASSE 37, ST. GALLEN V8 9000
Vifor Pharma Ltd.	10 percent owner	UNTERMATTWEG 8, BERNE V8 CH-3027