Coastal Financial (Coastal Financial) Predictability Rank

View and export this data going back to 2018. Start your Free Trial

What is Coastal Financial Predictability Rank?

Not Rated

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Coastal Financial Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

Coastal Financial Predictability Rank Related Terms

Thank you for viewing the detailed overview of Coastal Financial's Predictability Rank provided by GuruFocus.com. Please click on the following links to see related term pages.

Coastal Financial (Coastal Financial) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Financial Services » Banks » Coastal Financial Corp (NAS:CCB) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

1VD:Germany

Address

5415 Evergreen Way, Everett, WA, USA, 98203

Website

https://www.coastalbank.com

Coastal Financial Corp is a financial service provider. The company is engaged in providing banking products and services to consumers and small to medium sized businesses. The operating segment of the company is community banking. The services provided by the company include online banking and pay, mobile banking, securlock equip, and loans and deposit.

Executives

Eric M Sprink	director, officer: President & CEO	5415 EVERGREEN WAY, EVERETT WA 98203
Steven D Hovde	director	1110 LAKE COOK ROAD, SUITE 165, BUFFALO GROVE IL 60089
Andrew P Skotdal	director	5415 EVERGREEN WAY, EVERETT WA 98203
John J Dickson	officer: Chief Operations Officer	C/O COASTAL FINANCIAL CORP, 5415 EVERGREEN WAY, EVERETT WA 98203
Russ A Keithley	officer: Chief Lending Officer	5415 EVERGREEN WAY, EVERETT WA 98203
Curt Queyrouze	officer: President	5415 EVERGREEN WAY, EVERETT WA 98203
Thomas D Lane	director	5415 EVERGREEN WAY, EVERETT WA 98203
Michael Robert Patterson	director	5415 EVERGREEN WAY, EVERETT WA 98203
Andrew R Dale	director	5415 EVERGREEN WAY, EVERETT WA 98203
Pamela Unger	director	5415 EVERGREEN WAY, EVERETT WA 98203
Rilla S Delorier	director	5415 EVERGREEN WAY, EVERETT WA 98203
Daniel J Lee	officer: EVP & Chief Credit & Risk Off.	5415 EVERGREEN WAY, EVERETT WA 98203
Sadhana Akella-mishra	director	5415 EVERGREEN WAY, EVERETT WA 98203
Haugen John M Jr	director	5415 EVERGREEN WAY, EVERETT VA 98203
Stephan Klee	director	5415 EVERGREEN WAY, EVERETT WA 98203