CVB Financial (CVB Financial) Predictability Rank

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What is CVB Financial Predictability Rank?

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

CVB Financial Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

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CVB Financial (CVB Financial) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Financial Services » Banks » CVB Financial Corp (NAS:CVBF) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

BCV:Germany

Address

701 N. Haven Avenue, Suite 350, Ontario, CA, USA, 91764

Website

https://www.cbbank.com

CVB Financial Corp is the holding company for Citizens Business Bank. Citizens Business Bank offers banking, lending, and investing services through approximately 58 banking centers and three trust office locations serving the Inland Empire, Los Angeles County, Orange County, San Diego County, Ventura County, Santa Barbara County, and the Central Valley area of California.

Executives

Borba George A Jr	director	701 N HAVEN AVE, ONTARIO CA 91764
Richard H Wohl	officer: EVP & General Counsel	888 EAST WALNUT ST., PASADENA CA 91101
Yamynn Deangelis	officer: EVP Chief Risk Officer	701 N. HAVEN AVE., ONTARIO CA 91764
David F Farnsworth	officer: EVP & CCO	701 N. HAVEN AVE., ONTARIO CA 91764
Anna Kan	director	701 N. HAVEN AVE., ONTARIO CA 91764
Kimberly H. Sheehy	director	C/O SWITCH, INC., 7135 SOUTH DECATUR BOULEVARD, LAS VEGAS NV 89118
Jane Olvera	director	701 N HAVEN AVE, ONTARIO CA 91764
O Brien Raymond V Iii	director	701 N HAVEN AVENUE, ONTARIO CA 91764
Del Guercio Stephen A	director	701 N HAVEN AVE, ONTARIO CA 91764
Hal W Oswalt	director	701 N HAVEN AVE, ONTARIO CA 91764
David C Harvey	officer: EVP Chief Operations Officer	701 N. HAVEN AVENUE #350, ONTARIO CA 91764
E Allen Nicholson	officer: EVP & CFO	701 N. HAVEN AVE., ONTARIO CA 91764
David A. Brager	officer: EVP Sales Division Manager	701 N. HAVEN AVE. #350, ONTARIO CA 91764
Kristina M Leslie	director	DREAMWORKS ANIMATION SKG, INC., 1000 FLOWER STREET, GLENDALE CA 91201
Francene Lapoint	officer: SVP Chief Accounting Officer	1551 NORTH TUSTIN AVENUE, SUITE 300, SANTA ANA CA 92705