Electronic Arts (Electronic Arts) Predictability Rank

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What is Electronic Arts Predictability Rank?

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Electronic Arts Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

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Electronic Arts (Electronic Arts) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Communication Services » Interactive Media » Electronic Arts Inc (NAS:EA) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

EA:Mexico 1EA:Italy ERT:Germany EAIN34:Brazil

Address

209 Redwood Shores Parkway, Redwood City, CA, USA, 94065

Website

https://www.ea.com

EA is one of the world's largest third-party video game publishers and has transitioned from a console-based video game publisher to the one of the largest publishers on consoles, PC, and mobile. The firm owns number of large franchises, including Madden, EA Sports FC, Battlefield, Apex Legends, Mass Effect, Dragon's Age, and Need for Speed.

Executives

Jacob J. Schatz	officer: General Counsel & Corp Sect'y	C/O ELECTRONIC ARTS INC., 209 REDWOOD SHORES PKWY, REDWOOD CITY CA 94061
Laura Miele	officer: Chief Studios Officer	209 REDWOOD SHORES PARKWAY, REDWOOD CITY CA 94065
Vijayanthimala Singh	officer: Chief People Officer	C/O ELECTRONIC ARTS INC., 209, REDWOOD CITY CA 94065
Andrew Wilson	director, officer: Chief Executive Officer	209 REDWOOD SHORES PKWY, REDWOOD CITY CA 94065
Stuart Canfield	officer: Chief Financial Officer	209 REDWOOD SHORES PARKWAY, REDWOOD CITY CA 94065
Richard A Simonson	director	C/O SILVER SPRING NETWORKS, INC., 230 W. TASMAN DRIVE, SAN JOSE CA 95134
Luis A Ubinas	director	209 REDWOOD SHORES PARKWAY, REDWOOD CITY CA 94065-1175
Eric Charles Kelly	officer: Chief Accounting Officer	209 REDWOOD SHORES PARKWAY, REDWOOD CITY CA 94065
Chris Bruzzo	officer: Chief Marketing Officer	411 FIRST AVE., SOUTH, SUITE 700, SEATTLE WA 98104
Kenneth A Moss	officer: Chief Technology Officer	209 REDWOOD SHORES PKWY, REDWOOD CITY CA 94061
Chris Suh	officer: Chief Financial Officer	C/O CARDLYTICS, INC., 675 PONCE DE LEON AVE. NE, STE 6000, ATLANTA GA 30308
Blake J Jorgensen	officer: COO & CFO	209 REDWOOD SHORES PARKWAY, REDWOOD CITY CA 94065
Rachel A Gonzalez	director	3150 SABRE DRIVE, SOUTHLAKE TX 76092
Kofi A Bruce	director	GENERAL MILLS, INC., ONE GENERAL MILLS BLVD., MINNEAPOLIS MN 55426
Jay C Hoag	director	250 MIDDLEFIELD ROAD, MENLO PARK CA 94025