Exelon (Exelon) Predictability Rank

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What is Exelon Predictability Rank?

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Exelon Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

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Exelon (Exelon) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Utilities » Utilities - Regulated » Exelon Corp (NAS:EXC) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

EXC:Mexico 1EXC:Italy PEO:Germany PEO:Germany PEO:Germany E1XC34:Brazil

Address

10 South Dearborn Street, 54th Floor, P.O. Box 805379, Chicago, IL, USA, 60680-5379

Website

https://www.exeloncorp.com

Exelon serves approximately 10 million power and gas customers at its six regulated utilities in Illinois, Pennsylvania, Maryland, New Jersey, Delaware, and Washington, D.C.

Executives

Anna Richo	director	AMGEN INC., ONE AMGEN CENTER DRIVE, THOUSAND OAKS CA 91320-1799
Robert A Kleczynski	officer: SVP & Corp Controller	10 S DEARBORN STREET, 54TH FLOOR, CHICAGO IL 60603
Matthew C Rogers	director	10 S DEARBORN STREET, 54TH FLOOR, CHICAGO IL 60603
Charisse R Lillie	director	10 S DEARBORN STREET, 54TH FLOOR, CHICAGO IL 60603
Carim V Khouzami	officer: CEO of BGE	10 S DEARBORN STREET, 54TH FLOOR, CHICAGO IL 60603
Jeanne M Jones	officer: EVP & CFO	10 S DEARBORN STREET, 54TH FLOOR, CHICAGO IL 60603
John Tyler Anthony	officer: CEO Pepco Holdings LLC	10 S DEARBORN STREET, 54TH FLOOR, CHICAGO IL 60603
Trpik Joseph R Jr	officer: SVP & Corp. Controller	10 S DEARBORN STREET, 54TH FLOOR, CHICAGO IL 60603
William P Bowers	director	600 NORTH 18TH STREET, BIN 15N-8170, BIRMINGHAM AL 35203
Gayle Littleton	officer: EVP & General Counsel	10 S. DEARBORN ST., 52ND FLOOR SE, CHICAGO IL 60603
Calvin Jr Butler	officer: Sr EVP & CEO Exelon Utilities	10 SOUTH DEARBORN STREET, 54TH FLOOR, CHICAGO IL 60603
James Mchugh	officer: EVP & Chief Commercial Officer	10 S DEARBORN STREET, 54TH FLOOR, CHICAGO IL 60603
Joseph Dominguez	officer: CEO, ComEd	10 SOUTH DEARBORN STREET, CHICAGO IL 60603
Joseph Nigro	officer: Sr. EVP & Chief Fin. Officer	10 S. DEARBORN STREET, 54TH FLOOR, CHICAGO IL 60603
Christopher M. Crane	director, officer: President and CEO	10 SOUTH DEARBORN STREET, 54TH FLOOR, CHICAGO IL 60603