eXp World Holdings (eXp World Holdings) Predictability Rank

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What is eXp World Holdings Predictability Rank?

Not Rated

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

eXp World Holdings Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

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eXp World Holdings (eXp World Holdings) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Real Estate » Real Estate » eXp World Holdings Inc (NAS:EXPI) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

44Y:Germany

Address

2219 Rimland Drive, Suite 301, Bellingham, WA, USA, 98226

Website

https://www.expworldholdings.com

eXp World Holdings Inc is a cloud-based residential real estate company. The company owns and operates a cloud-based real estate brokerage and a technology platform business that develops and uses immersive technologies that help businesses increase their effectiveness and reduce costs from operating in traditional brick and mortar office spaces. Its business categories include Real Estate Brokerage, Technology Products and Services, Title, Escrow, Settlement Services, and Mortgage Brokerage Services. The company mainly operates in the United States and Canada, and it also has operations in the United Kingdom, Australia, South Africa, France, India, Portugal, and Mexico, among others.

Executives

Jason Gesing	director, officer: President	291 MAIN STREET, WEST NEWBURY MA 01985
Fred Reichheld	director	131 DARTMOUTH STREET, BOSTON MA 02116
Jose Enrique Valdes	officer: President, eXp Global	2219 RIMLAND DR STE 301, BELLINGHAM WA 98226
Jeff Whiteside	officer: CFO and CCO	2219 RIMLAND DRIVE, SUITE 301, BELLINGHAM WA 98226
James Bramble	officer: General Counsel	3838 W PARKWAY BLVD, SALT LAKE CITY X1 84120
Jian Cheng	officer: Controller	303 VICTORIA WAY, CHALFONT PA 18914
Randall D Miles	director	1321 KING STREET, SUITE 1, BELLINGHAM WA 98226
Penny Sanford	10 percent owner	3488 SPRINGHILL PLACE, BELLINGHAM WA 98226
Glenn Darrel Sanford	director, 10 percent owner, officer: Pres., Secretary, Treasurer	910 HARRIS AVENUE, #305, BELLINGHAM WA 98225
Chakarun Courtney Keating	officer: Chief Marketing Officer	2219 RIMLAND DR STE 301, BELLINGHAM WA 98226
Peggie Pelosi	director	3838 WEST PARKWAY BLVD., SALT LAKE CITY UT 84111
Eugene Frederick	director	2219 RIMLAND DRIVE, SUITE 301, BELLINGHAM WA 98226
Leonardo Pareja	officer: Chief Strategy Officer	2219 RIMLAND DR STE 301, BELLINGHAM WA 98226
Monica Weakley	director	2219 RIMLAND DR STE 301, BELLINGHAM WA 98226
Felicia J. Gentry	director	201 UNIVERSITY OAKS BLVD STE 540-121, ROUND ROCK TX 78665