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Fate Therapeutics Predictability Rank


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Not Rated

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.


Competitive Comparison

For the Biotechnology subindustry, Fate Therapeutics's Predictability Rank, along with its competitors' market caps and Predictability Rank data, can be viewed below:

* Competitive companies are chosen from companies within the same industry, with headquarter located in same country, with closest market capitalization; x-axis shows the market cap, and y-axis shows the term value; the bigger the dot, the larger the market cap. Note that "N/A" values will not show up in the chart.

   

Fate Therapeutics Predictability Rank Distribution

For the Biotechnology industry and Healthcare sector, Fate Therapeutics's Predictability Rank distribution charts can be found below:

* The bar in red indicates where Fate Therapeutics's Predictability Rank falls into.



Fate Therapeutics Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

PredictablesNon-PredictableAll stocks
Total Number of stocks57018332403
Total Lost Money61830891
Total Lost More Than 50%18412430
Total Lost More Than 90%48690
Average Gain260.6%100.0%138.1%
Median Gain150.0%13.0%39.0%
Maximum Gain2852.0%11483.0%11483.0%
Maximum Loss-100.0%-100.0%-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain12.7%6.7%8.4%
Annualized Median Gain8.9%1.1%3.1%


















For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank5-Star4.5-Star4-Star3.5-Star3-Star2.5-Star2-Star1-Star (non-predictable)Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks 3.3% 2.9% 3.7% 3.3% 3.3% 3.7% 3.3% 76.3% 100%
% that are in Loss (10y) 3% 10% 8% 9% 11% 18% 16% 45% 37%
Average Gain (10y) 364.6% 330.9% 278.0% 235.1% 243.5% 227.8% 154.8% 100.0% 138.1%
Median Gain (10y) 238.5% 193.5% 171.0% 159.0% 132.5% 113.5% 87.0% 13.0% 39.0%
Maximum Gainer 2228.0% 2547.0% 2452.0% 2852.0% 2432.0% 1892.0% 1807.0% 11483.0% 11483.0%
Maximum Loser -82.0% -53.0% -67.0% -100.0% -83.0% -100.0% -78.0% -100.0% -100.0%
Annualized Average Gain 15.4% 14.6% 13.2% 12.0% 12.2% 11.7% 9.1% 6.7% 8.4%
Annualized Median Gain 12.1% 10.6% 9.8% 9.3% 8.2% 7.3% 6.0% 1.1% 3.1%
















For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

Also read:

Part II: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part II: Role of Valuations
Part III: Intrinsic Value, Discounted Cash Flow and Margin of Safety

Fate Therapeutics Predictability Rank Related Terms

Thank you for viewing the detailed overview of Fate Therapeutics's Predictability Rank provided by GuruFocus.com. Please click on the following links to see related term pages.


Fate Therapeutics Business Description

Fate Therapeutics logo
Industry
Healthcare » Biotechnology NAICS : 325412 SIC : 2836
Traded in Other Exchanges
Address
3535 General Atomics Court, Suite 200, San Diego, CA, USA, 92121
Fate Therapeutics Inc is a clinical-stage biopharmaceutical company based in the United States. It is engaged in the development of programmed cellular immunotherapies for cancer and immune disorders. The company's cell therapy pipeline is comprised of NK- and T-cell immuno-oncology programs, including off-the-shelf engineered product candidates derived from clonal master iPSC lines, and immuno-regulatory programs, including product candidates to prevent life-threatening complications in patients.
Executives
Tahl Cindy officer: General Counsel and Secretary C/O FATE THERAPEUTICS, INC. 3535 GENERAL ATOMICS COURT, STE 200 SAN DIEGO CA 92121
Shoemaker Daniel D officer: Chief Scientific Officer C/O FATE THERAPEUTICS, INC. 3535 GENERAL ATOMICS COURT, SUITE 200 SAN DIEGO CA 92121
Valamehr Bahram officer: Chief Development Officer C/O FATE THERAPEUTICS, INC. 3535 GENERAL ATOMICS COURT, STE 200 SAN DIEGO CA 92121
Dulac Edward J Iii officer: Chief Financial Officer FATE THERAPEUTICS, INC. 3535 GENERAL ATOMICS COURT STE 200 SAN DIEGO CA 92121
Redmile Group, Llc director, 10 percent owner ONE LETTERMAN DRIVE BUILDING D, SUITE D3-300 SAN FRANCISCO CA 94129
Green Jeremy director, 10 percent owner ONE LETTERMAN DRIVE, BUILDING D SUITE D3-300 SAN FRANCISCO CA 94129
Jooss Karin director C/O GRITSTONE ONCOLOGY, INC. 5858 HORTON STREET, SUITE 210 EMERYVILLE CA 94608
Agarwal Shefali director C/O EPIZYME, INC., 400 TECHNOLOGY SQUARE CAMBRIDGE MA 02139
Mendlein John director PUBLIC "-//W3C//DTD HTML 4.0 Transitional//EN"> Ownership Information: MENDLEIN JOHN a.header:link {color: #3b4fae; font-weight: bold; text-decoration: underline;} a.header:visited {color: #3b4fae; font-weight: bold; text-decoration: underline;} a.header:hover {color: #191970;}
Rastetter William H director 9885 TOWNE CENTRE DR. SAN DIEGO CA 92121
Hershberg Robert director 3005 FIRST AVENUE SEATTLE WA 98121
Coughlin Timothy director 339 NORTH GRANADOS AVE SOLANA BEACH CA 92075
Lee Michael Stewart director C/O REDMILE GROUP, LLC ONE LETTERMAN DR., BLDG. D, SUITE D3-300 SAN FRANCISCO CA 94129
Epstein Robert S director PUBLIC "-//W3C//DTD HTML 4.0 Transitional//EN"> Ownership Information: EPSTEIN ROBERT S a.header:link {color: #3b4fae; font-weight: bold; text-decoration: underline;} a.header:visited {color: #3b4fae; font-weight: bold; text-decoration: underline;} a.header:hover {color: #191970;}
Wolchko J Scott director, officer: President and CEO C/O FATE THERAPEUTICS, INC. 3535 GENERAL ATOMICS COURT, SUITE 200 SAN DIEGO CA 92121

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