Forrester Research (Forrester Research) Predictability Rank

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Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Forrester Research Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

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Forrester Research (Forrester Research) Business Description

Industry

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Comparable Companies

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FFR:Germany

Address

60 Acorn Park Drive, Cambridge, MA, USA, 02140

Website

https://www.forrester.com

Forrester Research Inc is a United States-based company that provides independent research, data, and advisory services. It operates through the following segments: The Research segment develops and delivers research, connect, and analytics products; The consulting segment includes the revenues and the related costs of the company's consulting organization, and the Events segment is engaged in developing and hosting in-person and virtual events.

Executives

Steven P. Peltzman	officer: CBTO	C/O FORRESTER RESEARCH, INC., 60 ACORN PARK DRIVE, CAMBRIDGE MA 02140
Scott Chouinard	officer: Chief Accounting Officer	C/O FORRESTER RESEARCH, INC., 400 TECHNOLOGY SQUARE, CAMBRIDGE MA 02139
Carrie Johnson	officer: Chief Research Officer	C/O FORRESTER RESEARCH, INC., 60 ACORN PARK DRIVE, CAMBRIDGE MA 02140
Ryan Darrah	officer: Chief Legal Officer	C/O FORRESTER RESEARCH, INC., 60 ACORN PARK DRIVE, CAMBRIDGE MA 02140
Anthony J Friscia	director	C/O FORRESTER RESEARCH, INC., 60 ACORN PARK DRIVE, CAMBRIDGE MA 02140
Robert Galford	director	C/O FORRESTER RESEARCH, 400 TECHNOLOGY SQUARE, CAMBRIDGE MA 02139
Alicia Lee	officer: Chief Consulting Officer	C/O FORRESTER RESEARCH, INC., 60 ACORN PARK DRIVE, CAMBRIDGE MA 02140
Kelley Hippler	officer: Chief Sales Officer	C/O FORRESTER RESEARCH, INC., 60 ACORN PARK DR., CAMBRIDGE MA 02140
David Boyce	director	C/O FORRESTER RESEARCH, INC., 60 ACORN PARK DRIVE, CAMBRIDGE MA 02140
Roy Sarah Le	officer: Chief People Officer	C/O FORRESTER RESEARCH, INC., 60 ACORN PARK DRIVE, CAMBRIDGE MA 02140
Warren N Romine	director	7325 16TH STREET NW, WASHINGTON DC 20012
Sharyn Leaver	officer: Chief Research Officer	C/O FORRESTER RESEARCH, INC., 60 ACORN PARK DRIVE, CAMBRIDGE MA 02140
Nathaniel Swan	officer: Chief Sales Officer	C/O FORRESTER RESEARCH, INC., 60 ACORN PARK DRIVE, CAMBRIDGE MA 02140
George F Colony	director, 10 percent owner, officer: Chairman & CEO	C/O FORRESTER RESEARCH INC, 1033 MASSACHUSETTS AVE, CAMBRIDGE MA 02138
Gretchen Teichgraeber	director	C/O FORRESTER RESEARCH, 400 TECHNOLOGY SQUARE, CAMBRIDGE MA 02139