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Fox Predictability Rank


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Not Rated

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.


Competitive Comparison

For the Broadcasting subindustry, Fox's Predictability Rank, along with its competitors' market caps and Predictability Rank data, can be viewed below:

* Competitive companies are chosen from companies within the same industry, with headquarter located in same country, with closest market capitalization; x-axis shows the market cap, and y-axis shows the term value; the bigger the dot, the larger the market cap. Note that "N/A" values will not show up in the chart.

   

Fox Predictability Rank Distribution

For the Media - Diversified industry and Communication Services sector, Fox's Predictability Rank distribution charts can be found below:

* The bar in red indicates where Fox's Predictability Rank falls into.



Fox Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

PredictablesNon-PredictableAll stocks
Total Number of stocks57018332403
Total Lost Money61830891
Total Lost More Than 50%18412430
Total Lost More Than 90%48690
Average Gain260.6%100.0%138.1%
Median Gain150.0%13.0%39.0%
Maximum Gain2852.0%11483.0%11483.0%
Maximum Loss-100.0%-100.0%-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain12.7%6.7%8.4%
Annualized Median Gain8.9%1.1%3.1%


















For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank5-Star4.5-Star4-Star3.5-Star3-Star2.5-Star2-Star1-Star (non-predictable)Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks 3.3% 2.9% 3.7% 3.3% 3.3% 3.7% 3.3% 76.3% 100%
% that are in Loss (10y) 3% 10% 8% 9% 11% 18% 16% 45% 37%
Average Gain (10y) 364.6% 330.9% 278.0% 235.1% 243.5% 227.8% 154.8% 100.0% 138.1%
Median Gain (10y) 238.5% 193.5% 171.0% 159.0% 132.5% 113.5% 87.0% 13.0% 39.0%
Maximum Gainer 2228.0% 2547.0% 2452.0% 2852.0% 2432.0% 1892.0% 1807.0% 11483.0% 11483.0%
Maximum Loser -82.0% -53.0% -67.0% -100.0% -83.0% -100.0% -78.0% -100.0% -100.0%
Annualized Average Gain 15.4% 14.6% 13.2% 12.0% 12.2% 11.7% 9.1% 6.7% 8.4%
Annualized Median Gain 12.1% 10.6% 9.8% 9.3% 8.2% 7.3% 6.0% 1.1% 3.1%
















For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

Also read:

Part II: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part II: Role of Valuations
Part III: Intrinsic Value, Discounted Cash Flow and Margin of Safety

Fox Predictability Rank Related Terms

Thank you for viewing the detailed overview of Fox's Predictability Rank provided by GuruFocus.com. Please click on the following links to see related term pages.


Fox Business Description

Fox logo
Industry
Traded in Other Exchanges
Address
1211 Avenue of the Americas, New York, NY, USA, 10036
Fox represents the assets not sold to Disney by the predecessor firm, Twenty First Century Fox. The remaining assets include Fox News, the FOX broadcast network, FS1 and FS2, Fox Business, Big Ten Network, 28 owned and operated local television stations of which 17 are affiliated with the Fox Network, and the Fox Studios lot. The Murdoch family continues to control the successor firm, which represents a large-scale bet on the value of live sports and news in the U.S. market.
Executives
Hernandez Roland A director 300 NORTH SAN RAFAEL AVE PASADENA CA 91105
Murdoch Lachlan K director, officer: Executive Chairman, CEO C/O NEWS AMERICA INCORPORATED 1211 AVENUE OF THE AMERICAS NEW YORK NY 10036
Murdoch Keith Rupert director, officer: Chairman C/O FOX CORPORATION 1211 AVENUE OF THE AMERICAS NEW YORK NY 10036
Nallen John officer: Chief Operating Officer C/O NEWS AMERICA INCORPORATED 1211 AVENUE OF THE AMERICAS NEW YORK NY 10036
Nasser Jacques A director PUBLIC "-//W3C//DTD HTML 4.0 Transitional//EN"> Ownership Information: NASSER JACQUES A a.header:link {color: #3b4fae; font-weight: bold; text-decoration: underline;} a.header:visited {color: #3b4fae; font-weight: bold; text-decoration: underline;} a.header:hover {color: #191970;}
Carey Chase director C/O NEWS AMERICA INCORPORATED 1211 AVENUE OF THE AMERICAS NEW YORK NY 10036
Dinh Viet D officer: Chief Legal and Policy Officer GEORGETOWN UNIVERSITY LAW CENTER 600 NEW JERSEY AVENUE NW WASHINGTON DC 20001
Tomsic Steven officer: Chief Financial Officer 1211 AVENUE OF THE AMERICAS NEW YORK NY 10036
Ryan Paul D director 1211 AVENUE OF THE AMERICAS NEW YORK NY 10036
Dias Anne director 1211 AVENUE OF THE AMERICAS NEW YORK NY 10036
Cruden Financial Services Llc 10 percent owner C/O MCDONALD CARANO WILSON LLP 100 LIBERTY STREET RENO NV 89501
Murdoch Family Trust 10 percent owner C/O MCDONALD CARANO WILSON LLP 100 LIBERTY STREET RENO NV 89501
Twenty-first Century Fox, Inc. 10 percent owner 1211 AVENUE OF THE AMERICAS NEW YORK NY 10036

Fox Headlines

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