G1 Therapeutics (G1 Therapeutics) Predictability Rank

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What is G1 Therapeutics Predictability Rank?

Not Rated

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

G1 Therapeutics Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

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G1 Therapeutics (G1 Therapeutics) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Healthcare » Biotechnology » G1 Therapeutics Inc (NAS:GTHX) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

G1H:Germany

Address

700 Park Offices Drive, Suite 200, Research Triangle Park, NC, USA, 27709

Website

https://www.g1therapeutics.com

G1 Therapeutics Inc is a commercial-stage biopharmaceutical company. It is engaged in developing novel, small-molecule therapies to target unmet needs in the treatment of cancer. The firm is developing drugs that have the potential to treat the types of cancer, such as cell lung cancer and breast cancer, and designs them to combine - and enhance - the anti-tumor activity of current therapies.

Executives

John V. Umstead	officer: Chief Financial Officer	C/O G1 THERAPEUTICS, INC., 700 PARK OFFICES DRIVE, SUITE 200, RESEARCH TRIANGLE PARK NC 27709
Rajesh Malik	officer: Chief Medical Officer	79 TW ALEXANDER DRIVE, 4501 RESEARCH COMMONS, SUITE 100, RESEARCH TRIANGLE PARK NC 27709
Mark Avagliano	officer: Chief Business Officer	79 T.W. ALEXANDER DRIVE, 4501 RESEARCH COMMONS, SUITE 100, RESEARCH TRIANGLE PARK NC 27709
Terry L Murdock	officer: Chief Operating Officer
Bailey John E. (jack) Jr.	director, officer: President and CEO	C/O G1 THERAPEUTICS, INC., 700 PARK OFFICES DRIVE, SUITE 200, RESEARCH TRIANGLE PARK NC 27709
Andrew Perry	officer: Chief Commercial Officer	C/O G1 THERAPEUTICS, INC., 700 PARK OFFICES DRIVE, SUITE 200, RESEARCH TRIANGLE PARK NC 27709
Mark A. Velleca	director, officer: President and CEO	79 TW ALEXANDER DRIVE, 4501 RESEARCH COMMONS, SUITE 100, RESEARCH TRIANGLE PARK NC 27709
Monica R. Thomas	officer: General Counsel	700 PARK OFFICES, SUITE 200, RESEARCH TRIANGLE PARK NC 27709
Jennifer K. Moses	officer: CFO	79 TW ALEXANDER DRIVE, 4501 RESEARCH COMMONS, SUITE 100, RESEARCH TRIANGLE PARK NC 27709
James S. Hanson	officer: General Counsel	79 TW ALEXANDER DRIVE, 4501 RESEARCH COMMONS, SUITE 100, RESEARCH TRIANGLE PARK NC 27709
Norman Sharpless	director	700 PARK OFFICES DRIVE, SUITE 200, RESEARCH TRIANGLE PARK NC 22709
Jacks Lee	director	700 PARK OFFICES DRIVE, SUITE 200, RESEARCH TRIANGLE PARK NC 27709
Seth Rudnick	director	7100 WEST CREDIT AVENUE, SUITE 101, C/O ARALEZ PHARMACEUTICALS, MISSISSAUGA A6 L5N 0E4
Alicia Secor	director	33 HAYDEN AVE., LEXINGTON MA 02421
Soma Gupta	officer: Chief Commercial Officer	C/O G1 THERAPEUTICS, INC., 700 PARK OFFICES DRIVE, SUITE 200, RESEARCH TRIANGLE PARK NC 27709