Home BancShares (Home BancShares) Predictability Rank

View and export this data going back to 2006. Start your Free Trial

What is Home BancShares Predictability Rank?

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Home BancShares Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

Home BancShares Predictability Rank Related Terms

Thank you for viewing the detailed overview of Home BancShares's Predictability Rank provided by GuruFocus.com. Please click on the following links to see related term pages.

Home BancShares (Home BancShares) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Financial Services » Banks » Home BancShares Inc (NYSE:HOMB) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

N/A

Address

719 Harkrider, Suite 100, Conway, AR, USA, 72032

Website

https://www.homebancshares.com

Home BancShares Inc is a bank holding company that primarily operates through its wholly owned community bank subsidiary, Centennial Bank. The bank provides a broad range of commercial and retail banking, as well as related financial services, to a diverse customer base. Its customer base includes businesses, real estate developers and investors, individuals, and municipalities. The company's loan portfolio, while diversified, is typically between half and two thirds in commercial real estate loans. The company's strategy emphasizes growth, both through strategic acquisitions and organically within its existing markets. The bank also emphasizes attracting experienced bankers, strong credit quality, and a solid balance sheet. The bank's main source of net revenue is net interest income.

Executives

James Pat Hickman	director	P.O. BOX 966, CONWAY AR 72033
Adcock Robert H Jr	director	P O BOX 966, CONWAY AR 72033
Tracy French	director, officer: Centennial Bank CEO/ President	78 GREYSTONE BLVD, CABOT AR 72023
Carter Russell Davis Iii	officer: Executive Vice President	15 GETTYSBURG SOUTH, CABOT AR 72023
Williamson Kenneth Mikel Jr	officer: Centennial Bank Regional Pres.	P.O. BOX 966, CONWAY AR 72033
Larry W Ross	director	P.O. BOX 966, CONWAY AR 72033
Richard H Ashley	director	2851 LAKEWOOD VILLAGE DR., NORTH LITTLE ROCK AR 72116
Brian Davis	director, officer: Chief Financial Officer	6 GATEWOOD CV, LITTLE ROCK AR 72206
Jim Rankin	director	P.O. BOX 966, CONWAY AR 72033
Alex R Lieblong	director	210 E. ELM STREET, P. O. BOX 7200, EL DORADO AR 71730
John Stephen Tipton	officer: Chief Operating Officer	P.O. BOX 966, CONWAY AR 72033
Jack Engelkes	director	P O BOX 1167, CONWAY AR 72032
Jennifer C. Floyd	officer: Chief Accounting Officer	P.O. BOX 966, CONWAY AR 72033
John W Allison	director, officer: Chairman
James G Hinkle	director	P.O. BOX 1228, MOUNTAIN VIEW AR 72560