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HomeTrust Bancshares Predictability Rank


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Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.


Competitive Comparison

For the Banks - Regional subindustry, HomeTrust Bancshares's Predictability Rank, along with its competitors' market caps and Predictability Rank data, can be viewed below:

* Competitive companies are chosen from companies within the same industry, with headquarter located in same country, with closest market capitalization; x-axis shows the market cap, and y-axis shows the term value; the bigger the dot, the larger the market cap. Note that "N/A" values will not show up in the chart.

   

HomeTrust Bancshares Predictability Rank Distribution

For the Banks industry and Financial Services sector, HomeTrust Bancshares's Predictability Rank distribution charts can be found below:

* The bar in red indicates where HomeTrust Bancshares's Predictability Rank falls into.



HomeTrust Bancshares Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

PredictablesNon-PredictableAll stocks
Total Number of stocks57018332403
Total Lost Money61830891
Total Lost More Than 50%18412430
Total Lost More Than 90%48690
Average Gain260.6%100.0%138.1%
Median Gain150.0%13.0%39.0%
Maximum Gain2852.0%11483.0%11483.0%
Maximum Loss-100.0%-100.0%-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain12.7%6.7%8.4%
Annualized Median Gain8.9%1.1%3.1%


















For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank5-Star4.5-Star4-Star3.5-Star3-Star2.5-Star2-Star1-Star (non-predictable)Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks 3.3% 2.9% 3.7% 3.3% 3.3% 3.7% 3.3% 76.3% 100%
% that are in Loss (10y) 3% 10% 8% 9% 11% 18% 16% 45% 37%
Average Gain (10y) 364.6% 330.9% 278.0% 235.1% 243.5% 227.8% 154.8% 100.0% 138.1%
Median Gain (10y) 238.5% 193.5% 171.0% 159.0% 132.5% 113.5% 87.0% 13.0% 39.0%
Maximum Gainer 2228.0% 2547.0% 2452.0% 2852.0% 2432.0% 1892.0% 1807.0% 11483.0% 11483.0%
Maximum Loser -82.0% -53.0% -67.0% -100.0% -83.0% -100.0% -78.0% -100.0% -100.0%
Annualized Average Gain 15.4% 14.6% 13.2% 12.0% 12.2% 11.7% 9.1% 6.7% 8.4%
Annualized Median Gain 12.1% 10.6% 9.8% 9.3% 8.2% 7.3% 6.0% 1.1% 3.1%
















For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

Also read:

Part II: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part II: Role of Valuations
Part III: Intrinsic Value, Discounted Cash Flow and Margin of Safety

HomeTrust Bancshares Predictability Rank Related Terms

Thank you for viewing the detailed overview of HomeTrust Bancshares's Predictability Rank provided by GuruFocus.com. Please click on the following links to see related term pages.


HomeTrust Bancshares Business Description

HomeTrust Bancshares logo
Industry
Financial Services » Banks NAICS : 522120 SIC : 6035
Traded in Other Exchanges
N/A
Address
10 Woodfin Street, Asheville, NC, USA, 28801
HomeTrust Bancshares Inc operates as a bank holding company, which offers deposit accounts for individuals, businesses, and nonprofit organizations for HomeTrust Bank. It involves attracting deposits, including savings money market, demand accounts, and certificates of deposit from the general public. The company's loan portfolio comprises retail consumer loans, such as one-to-four-family residential property lending, home equity lines of credit, construction and land/lots, indirect auto finance, and consumer lending; and commercial loans, including commercial real estate lending, construction, and development lending, and commercial and industrial loans.
Executives
Koontz Craig C. director C/O HOMETRUST BANCSHARES, INC. 10 WOODFIN STREET ASHEVILLE NC 28801
Vuncannon Tony J. officer: EVP, CFO and Treasurer C/O HOMETRUST BANCSHARES, INC. 10 WOODFIN STREET ASHEVILLE NC 28801
Westbrook Hunter officer: EVP, Chief Banking Officer C/O HOMETRUST BANCSHARES, INC. 10 WOODFIN STREET ASHEVILLE NC 28801
Williams Richard Tyrone director HOMETRUST BANCSHARES, INC. 10 WOODFIN STREET ASHEVILLE NC 28801
Kendall Laura C director C/O CHARLES & COLVARD 3800 GATEWAY BLVD #310 MORRISVILLE NC 27560
Houghton Keith J officer: EVP, Chief Credit Officer C/O HOMETRUST BANCSHARES, INC. 10 WOODFIN STREET ASHEVILLE NC 28801
Stonestreet Dana L. director, officer: President and CEO C/O HOMETRUST BANCSHARES, INC. 10 WOODFIN STREET ASHEVILLE NC 28801
Biesecker Sidney A. director C/O HOMETRUST BANCSHARES, INC. 10 WOODFIN STREET ASHEVILLE NC 28801
Goforth J. Steven director C/O HOMETRUST BANCSHARES, INC. 10 WOODFIN STREET ASHEVILLE NC 28801
Mcfarland F. K. Iii director C/O HOMETRUST BANCSHARES, INC. 10 WOODFIN STREET ASHEVILLE NC 28801
Little R. Parrish officer: EVP, Chief Risk Officer HOMETRUST BANCSHARES, INC. 10 WOODFIN STREET ASHEVILLE NC 28801
James Robert E. director HOMETRUST BANCSHARES, INC. 10 WOODFIN STREET ASHEVILLE NC 28801
Switzer John director BARINGS LLC 300 SOUTH TRYON STREET, SUITE 2500 CHARLOTTE NC 28202
Caywood Marty T. officer: EVP, Chief Information Officer HOMETRUST BANCSHARES, INC. 10 WOODFIN STREET ASHEVILLE NC 28801
Labian Paula C. officer: EVP, Chief Human Resources Off HOMETRUST BANCSHARES, INC. 10 WOODFIN STREET ASHEVILLE NC 28801

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