Incyte (Incyte) Predictability Rank

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What is Incyte Predictability Rank?

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Incyte Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

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Incyte (Incyte) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Healthcare » Biotechnology » Incyte Corp (NAS:INCY) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

1INCY:Italy ICY:Germany ICY:Germany I1NC34:Brazil

Address

1801 Augustine Cut-Off, Wilmington, DE, USA, 19803

Website

https://www.incyte.com

Incyte focuses on the discovery and development of small-molecule drugs. The firm's lead drug, Jakafi, treats two types of rare blood cancer and graft versus host disease and is partnered with Novartis. Incyte's other marketed drugs include rheumatoid arthritis treatment Olumiant (licensed to Lilly), and oncology drugs Iclusig (chronic myeloid leukemia), Pemazyre (cholangiocarcinoma), Tabrecta (lung cancer), and Monjuvi (diffuse large B-cell lymphoma). The firm's first dermatology product, Opzelura, was approved in 2021 for atopic dermatitis and 2022 for vitiligo. Incyte's pipeline includes a broad array of oncology and dermatology programs.

Executives

Steven H Stein	officer: EVP & Chief Medical Officer	1801 AUGUSTINE CUT-OFF, WILMINGTON DE 19803
Vijay K Iyengar	officer: EVP GPS, BD, & Licensing	1801 AUGUSTINE CUT-OFF, WILMINGTON DE 19803
Thomas Tray	officer: Principal Accounting Officer	C/O INCYTE CORPORATION, 1801 AUGUSTINE CUT-OFF, WILMINGTON DE 19803
Sheila A. Denton	officer: EVP & General Counsel	1801 AUGUSTINE CUT-OFF, WILMINGTON DE 19803
Paul J Clancy	director	C/O BIOGEN IDEC INC., 14 CAMBRIDGE CENTER, CAMBRIDGE MA 02142
Edmund Harrigan	director	C/O ACADIA PHARMACEUTICALS INC., 12830 EL CAMINO REAL, SUITE 400, SAN DIEGO CA 92130
Paula J Swain	other: Exec VP, Human Resources	C/O INCYTE CORPORATION, 3160 PORTER DRIVE, PALO LATO CA 94304
Pablo J Cagnoni	officer: President, R&D	ONYX PHARMACEUTICALS, INC., 249 E. GRAND AVE., SOUTH SAN FRANCISCO CA 94080
Maria E Pasquale	officer: EVP & General Counsel	C/O INCYTE CORPORATION, 1801 AUGUSTINE CUT-OFF, WILMINGTON DE 19803
Dashyant Dhanak	officer: EVP & Chief Scientific Officer	C/O INCYTE CORPORATION, 1801 AUGUSTINE CUT-OFF, WILMINGTON DE 19803
Susanne Schaffert	director	C/O RUBIUS THERAPEUTICS, INC., 399 BINNEY STREET, SUITE 300, CAMBRIDGE MA 02139
Barry P Flannelly	officer: See Remarks	ROUTE 141 AND HENRY CLAY ROAD, WILMINGTON DE 19880
Baker Bros. Advisors Lp	director, 10 percent owner	860 WASHINGTON STREET, 3RD FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10014
Jonathan Elliott Dickinson	officer: EVP, General Manager, Europe	CARE OF INCYTE CORPORATION, 1801 AUGUSTINE CUT OFF, WILMINGTON DE 19803
Wendy L Dixon	director