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Kulicke & Soffa Industries Predictability Rank


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Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.


Kulicke & Soffa Industries Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

PredictablesNon-PredictableAll stocks
Total Number of stocks57018332403
Total Lost Money61830891
Total Lost More Than 50%18412430
Total Lost More Than 90%48690
Average Gain260.6%100.0%138.1%
Median Gain150.0%13.0%39.0%
Maximum Gain2852.0%11483.0%11483.0%
Maximum Loss-100.0%-100.0%-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain12.7%6.7%8.4%
Annualized Median Gain8.9%1.1%3.1%


















For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank5-Star4.5-Star4-Star3.5-Star3-Star2.5-Star2-Star1-Star (non-predictable)Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks 3.3% 2.9% 3.7% 3.3% 3.3% 3.7% 3.3% 76.3% 100%
% that are in Loss (10y) 3% 10% 8% 9% 11% 18% 16% 45% 37%
Average Gain (10y) 364.6% 330.9% 278.0% 235.1% 243.5% 227.8% 154.8% 100.0% 138.1%
Median Gain (10y) 238.5% 193.5% 171.0% 159.0% 132.5% 113.5% 87.0% 13.0% 39.0%
Maximum Gainer 2228.0% 2547.0% 2452.0% 2852.0% 2432.0% 1892.0% 1807.0% 11483.0% 11483.0%
Maximum Loser -82.0% -53.0% -67.0% -100.0% -83.0% -100.0% -78.0% -100.0% -100.0%
Annualized Average Gain 15.4% 14.6% 13.2% 12.0% 12.2% 11.7% 9.1% 6.7% 8.4%
Annualized Median Gain 12.1% 10.6% 9.8% 9.3% 8.2% 7.3% 6.0% 1.1% 3.1%
















For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

Also read:

Part II: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part II: Role of Valuations
Part III: Intrinsic Value, Discounted Cash Flow and Margin of Safety

Kulicke & Soffa Industries Predictability Rank Related Terms

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Kulicke & Soffa Industries Business Description

Kulicke & Soffa Industries logo
Industry
Technology » Semiconductors NAICS : 334413 SIC : 3674
Traded in Other Exchanges
Address
23A Serangoon North Avenue 5, No 01-01, K and S Corporate Headquarters, Singapore, SGP, 554369
Kulicke & Soffa Industries Inc is a United States-based company that is principally engaged in designing, manufacturing, and selling capital equipment and expendable tools that are used for assembling semiconductor devices. The company operates through two core segments: Capital equipment, which produces and sells a series of ball bonders, wafer-level bonders, wedge bonders, APS which produces and offers various expendable tools designed for multiple semiconductor packaging applications. The Capital equipment segment contributes the majority of total revenue. The company generates the majority of its total revenue from the overseas market, mainly in the Asia-Pacific region.
Executives
Wong Nelson Munpun officer: Senior Vice President 23A, SERANGOON NORTH AVE 5 #01-01 SINGAPORE U0 554369
Drake Stephen Ray officer: Vice President 23A SERANGOON NORTH AVENUE 5 #01-01 SINGAPORE U0 554369
Chen Fusen Ernie director, officer: President and CEO 1005 VIRGINIA DRIVE FORT WASHINGTON PA 19034
Wong Lester A officer: Chief Financial Officer 23A, SERANGOON NORTH AVE 5 #01-01 SINGAPORE U0 554369
Chong Chan Pin officer: Executive Vice President 23A SERANGOON NORTH AVENUE 5 #01-01 SINGAPORE U0 554369
Soloveizik Zamir Shai officer: Vice President 23A SERANGOON NORTH AVENUE 5, #01-01 SINGAPORE U0 554369
Milzcik Gregory F director 1005 VIRGINIA DRIVE FORT WASHINGTON PA 19034
Yeo Mui Sung director 23A, SERANGOON NORTH AVENUE 5 #01-01 SINGAPORE U0 554369
Lim Chin Hu director 23A, SERANGOON NORTH AVENUE 5 #01-01 SINGAPORE U0 554369
Kong Peter T M director KULICKE AND SOFFA INDUSTRIES INC. 1005 VIRGINIA DRIVE FT. WASHINGTON PA 19034
Richardson David Jeffrey director LSI LOGIC CORP 1621 BARBER LANE MILPITAS CA 95035
Pierce Garrett E director 21839 ATLANTIC BLVD DULLES VA 20166
Bachman Brian R director 1005 VIRGINIA DRIVE FORT WASHINGTON PA 19034
Sood Deepak officer: Vice President 23A, SERANGOON NORTH AVENUE 5 #01-01 SINGAPORE U0 554369
Hoang Hoang officer: Executive Vice President 23A SERANGOON NORTH AVE 5 #01-01 SINGAPORE U0 554369

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