Lululemon Athletica (Lululemon Athletica) Predictability Rank

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Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Lululemon Athletica Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

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Lululemon Athletica (Lululemon Athletica) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Consumer Cyclical » Retail - Cyclical » Lululemon Athletica Inc (NAS:LULU) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

LULU:Mexico 33L:Germany 33L:Germany 33L:Germany L1UL34:Brazil LULU:Austria

Address

1818 Cornwall Avenue, Vancouver, BC, CAN, V6J 1C7

Website

https://www.lululemon.com

Lululemon Athletica designs, distributes, and markets athletic apparel, footwear, and accessories for women, men, and girls. Lululemon offers pants, shorts, tops, and jackets for both leisure and athletic activities such as yoga and running. The company also sells fitness accessories, such as bags, yoga mats, and equipment. Lululemon sells its products through more than 680 company-owned stores in 19 countries, e-commerce, outlets, and wholesale accounts. The company was founded in 1998 and is based in Vancouver, Canada.

Executives

Meghan Frank	officer: Chief Financial Officer	C/O LULULEMON ATHLETICA INC., 1818 CORNWALL AVENUE, VANCOUVER A1 V6J 1C7
Nicole Neuburger	officer: Chief Brand Officer	C/O LULULEMON ATHLETICA INC., 1818 CORNWALL AVENUE, VANCOUVER A1 V6J 1C7
Calvin Mcdonald	director, officer: Chief Executive Officer	C/O LULULEMON ATHLETICA INC., 1818 CORNWALL AVENUE, VANCOUVER A1 V6J 1C7
Celeste Burgoyne	officer: Pres Americas&Global Guest	C/O LULULEMON ATHLETICA INC., 1818 CORNWALL AVE, VANCOUVER A1 V6J 1C7
Shane Grant	director	C/O LULULEMON ATHLETICA INC., 1818 CORNWALL AVENUE, VANCOUVER A1 V6J 1C7
Michelle Sun Choe	officer: Chief Product Officer	C/O LULULEMON ATHLETICA INC., 1818 CORNWALL AVE, VANCOUVER A1 V6J 1C7
David M Mussafer	director	C/O ADVENT INTERNATIONAL CORP, 75 STATE ST 29TH FLOOR, BOSTON MA 02104
Isabel Mahe	director	ONE APPLE PARK WAY, MS169:2CL, CUPERTINO CA 95014
Kathryn Henry	director	C/O LULULEMON ATHLETICA, INC., 1818 CORNWALL AVENUE, VANCOUVER A1 V6J 1C7
Kourtney Gibson	director	C/O MARKETAXESS HOLDINGS INC., 55 HUDSON YARDS, 15TH FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10001
Alison Loehnis	director	C/O LULULEMON ATHLETICA INC., 1818 CORNWALL AVENUE, VANCOUVER A1 V6J1C7
Andre Maestrini	officer: EVP, International	C/O LULULEMON ATHLETICA INC., 1818 CORNWALL AVENUE, VANCOUVER A1 V6J 1C7
Glenn Murphy	director	C/O LULULEMON ATHLETICA INC., 1818 CORNWALL AVENUE, VANCOUVER A1 V6J1C7
Martin Michael Casey	director
Jon Mcneill	director	45500 FREMONT BLVD, FREMONT CA 94538