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National Research Predictability Rank


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Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

National Research Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

PredictablesNon-PredictableAll stocks
Total Number of stocks57018332403
Total Lost Money61830891
Total Lost More Than 50%18412430
Total Lost More Than 90%48690
Average Gain260.6%100.0%138.1%
Median Gain150.0%13.0%39.0%
Maximum Gain2852.0%11483.0%11483.0%
Maximum Loss-100.0%-100.0%-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain12.7%6.7%8.4%
Annualized Median Gain8.9%1.1%3.1%


















For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank5-Star4.5-Star4-Star3.5-Star3-Star2.5-Star2-Star1-Star (non-predictable)Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks 3.3% 2.9% 3.7% 3.3% 3.3% 3.7% 3.3% 76.3% 100%
% that are in Loss (10y) 3% 10% 8% 9% 11% 18% 16% 45% 37%
Average Gain (10y) 364.6% 330.9% 278.0% 235.1% 243.5% 227.8% 154.8% 100.0% 138.1%
Median Gain (10y) 238.5% 193.5% 171.0% 159.0% 132.5% 113.5% 87.0% 13.0% 39.0%
Maximum Gainer 2228.0% 2547.0% 2452.0% 2852.0% 2432.0% 1892.0% 1807.0% 11483.0% 11483.0%
Maximum Loser -82.0% -53.0% -67.0% -100.0% -83.0% -100.0% -78.0% -100.0% -100.0%
Annualized Average Gain 15.4% 14.6% 13.2% 12.0% 12.2% 11.7% 9.1% 6.7% 8.4%
Annualized Median Gain 12.1% 10.6% 9.8% 9.3% 8.2% 7.3% 6.0% 1.1% 3.1%
















For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

Also read:

Part II: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part II: Role of Valuations
Part III: Intrinsic Value, Discounted Cash Flow and Margin of Safety

National Research Predictability Rank Related Terms

Thank you for viewing the detailed overview of National Research's Predictability Rank provided by GuruFocus.com. Please click on the following links to see related term pages.

National Research Business Description

National Research logo
Industry
Healthcare » Healthcare Providers & Services NAICS : 923120 SIC : 7372
Comparable Companies
NAS:HLTH NAS:SLP NYSE:AMWL XTER:NXU LSE:CRW NAS:SHCR NAS:ACCD LSE:EMIS OSTO:SUS NAS:HCAT
Traded in Other Exchanges
NRCIB:USA NR1A:Germany
Address
1245 Q Street, Lincoln, NE, USA, 68508
Website
https://www.nrchealth.com
National Research Corp is a provider of analytics and insights that facilitate measurement and improvement of the patient and employee experience while also increasing patient engagement and customer loyalty for healthcare providers, payers, and other healthcare organizations. Its portfolio of solutions represents a set of capabilities that individually and collectively provide value to clients. The solutions are offered at an enterprise level through the Voice of the Customer platform, The Governance Institute, and legacy Experience solutions. It operates in the US and Canada, of which key revenue is derived from the US.
Executives
Jackson Steven D. officer: President C/O NATIONAL RESEARCH CORPORATION 1245 Q STREET LINCOLN NE 68508
Martin Joann M director 6221 ANDREW COURT LINCOLN NE 68512
Nunnelly John N director P.O. BOX 2175 AMHERST MA 01004
Karas Kevin R officer: SVP Finance, CFO, Treas & Secy C/O NATIONAL RESEARCH CORPORATION 1245 Q STREET LINCOLN NE 68508
Berwick Donald M director C/O NATIONAL RESEARCH CORPORATION 1245 Q STREET LINCOLN NE 68508
Mowry Barbara director P.O. BOX 103115 DENVER CO 80250
Amandla Mk Trust 10 percent owner C/O THE BRYN MAWR TRUST COMPANY OF DELAW 20 MONTCHANIN RD, SUITE 100 GREENVILLE DE 19807
Hays Michael D. director, officer: CEO C/O NATIONAL RESEARCH CORPORATION 1245 Q STREET LINCOLN NE 68508
K/i/e Trust Under Agreement 10/24/18 10 percent owner C/O BESSEMER TRUST COMPANY OF DELAWARE 1007 N. ORANGE ST., SUITE 1450 WILMINGTON DE 19801
Endacott Kent E. 10 percent owner C/O WOODS & AITKEN LLP 301 SOUTH 13TH STREET, SUITE 500 LINCOLN NE 68508
Beans Patrick E director, officer: CFO and Secretary AMANDLA LLC 709 PIER 2 LINCOLN NE 68528
Warden Gail L director 250 WASHINGTON RD GROSSE POINTE MI 48230
Henricks Susan L officer: President and COO C/O NATIONAL RESEARCH CORPORATION 1245 Q STREET LINCOLN NE 68508
Schorr Paul C Iii director PUBLIC "-//W3C//DTD HTML 4.0 Transitional//EN"> Ownership Information: SCHORR PAUL C III a.header:link {color: #3b4fae; font-weight: bold; text-decoration: underline;} a.header:visited {color: #3b4fae; font-weight: bold; text-decoration: underline;} a.header:hover {color: #191970;}
Peetz Jeffery T 10 percent owner WOODS & AITKEN LLP 301 SOUTH 13TH STREET, SUITE 500 LINCOLN NE 68508
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