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Oaktree Specialty Lending Predictability Rank


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Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.


Competitive Comparison

For the Credit Services subindustry, Oaktree Specialty Lending's Predictability Rank, along with its competitors' market caps and Predictability Rank data, can be viewed below:

* Competitive companies are chosen from companies within the same industry, with headquarter located in same country, with closest market capitalization; x-axis shows the market cap, and y-axis shows the term value; the bigger the dot, the larger the market cap. Note that "N/A" values will not show up in the chart.

   

Oaktree Specialty Lending Predictability Rank Distribution

For the Credit Services industry and Financial Services sector, Oaktree Specialty Lending's Predictability Rank distribution charts can be found below:

* The bar in red indicates where Oaktree Specialty Lending's Predictability Rank falls into.



Oaktree Specialty Lending Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

PredictablesNon-PredictableAll stocks
Total Number of stocks57018332403
Total Lost Money61830891
Total Lost More Than 50%18412430
Total Lost More Than 90%48690
Average Gain260.6%100.0%138.1%
Median Gain150.0%13.0%39.0%
Maximum Gain2852.0%11483.0%11483.0%
Maximum Loss-100.0%-100.0%-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain12.7%6.7%8.4%
Annualized Median Gain8.9%1.1%3.1%


















For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank5-Star4.5-Star4-Star3.5-Star3-Star2.5-Star2-Star1-Star (non-predictable)Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks 3.3% 2.9% 3.7% 3.3% 3.3% 3.7% 3.3% 76.3% 100%
% that are in Loss (10y) 3% 10% 8% 9% 11% 18% 16% 45% 37%
Average Gain (10y) 364.6% 330.9% 278.0% 235.1% 243.5% 227.8% 154.8% 100.0% 138.1%
Median Gain (10y) 238.5% 193.5% 171.0% 159.0% 132.5% 113.5% 87.0% 13.0% 39.0%
Maximum Gainer 2228.0% 2547.0% 2452.0% 2852.0% 2432.0% 1892.0% 1807.0% 11483.0% 11483.0%
Maximum Loser -82.0% -53.0% -67.0% -100.0% -83.0% -100.0% -78.0% -100.0% -100.0%
Annualized Average Gain 15.4% 14.6% 13.2% 12.0% 12.2% 11.7% 9.1% 6.7% 8.4%
Annualized Median Gain 12.1% 10.6% 9.8% 9.3% 8.2% 7.3% 6.0% 1.1% 3.1%
















For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

Also read:

Part II: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part II: Role of Valuations
Part III: Intrinsic Value, Discounted Cash Flow and Margin of Safety

Oaktree Specialty Lending Predictability Rank Related Terms

Thank you for viewing the detailed overview of Oaktree Specialty Lending's Predictability Rank provided by GuruFocus.com. Please click on the following links to see related term pages.


Oaktree Specialty Lending Business Description

Oaktree Specialty Lending logo
Industry
Financial Services » Credit Services NAICS : 522390 SIC : 6162
Traded in Other Exchanges
Address
333 South Grand Avenue, 28th Floor, Los Angeles, CA, USA, 90071
Oaktree Specialty Lending Corp is a specialty finance company. It provides lending services and invests in small and mid-sized companies. The company's investment objective is to maximize its portfolio's total return by generating current income from debt investments, and to a lesser extent, capital appreciation from equity investments. Its investments generally range in size from ten million dollars to hundred million dollars and are principally in the form of the first lien, second lien, or collectively, senior secured, and subordinated debt investments, which may also include an equity component made in connection with investments by private equity sponsors.
Executives
Gero Deborah Ann director 333 SOUTH GRAND AVENUE 28TH FLOOR LOS ANGELES CA 90071
Ruben Richard director C/O OAKTREE CAPITAL MANAGEMENT, L.P. 333 S. GRAND AVENUE, 28TH FLOOR LOS ANGELES CA 90071
Tannenbaum Leonard M 10 percent owner 10 BANK STREET, 12TH FLOOR WHITE PLAINS NY 10606
Panossian Armen officer: Chief Executive Officer 333 SOUTH GRAND AVENUE 28TH FLOOR LOS ANGELES CA 90071
Jacobson Craig A director C/O EXPEDIA, INC. 333 108TH AVENUE NE BELLEVUE WA 98004
Pendo Mathew officer: President and COO C/O OAKTREE CAPITAL MANAGEMENT, L.P. 333 S. GRAND AVENUE, 28TH FLOOR LOS ANGELES CA 90071
Carlisle Melvin officer: CFO & Treasurer C/O OAKTREE CAPITAL MANAGEMENT, L.P. 333 S. GRAND AVENUE, 28TH FLOOR LOS ANGELES CA 90071
Zimmerman Bruce director C/O OAKTREE CAPITAL MANAGEMENT, L.P. 333 S. GRAND AVENUE, 28TH FLOOR LOS ANGELES CA 90071
Gamsin Marc director 1999 AVENUE OF THE STARS SUITE 2150 LOS ANGELES CA 90067
Frank John director C/O OAKTREE CAPITAL MANAGEMENT 333 SOUTH GRAND 28TH FLOOR LOS ANGELES CA 90071
Lee Edgar officer: See Remarks C/O OAKTREE CAPITAL MANAGEMENT, L.P. 333 SOUTH GRAND AVE, 28TH FLOOR LOS ANGELES CA 90071
Oaktree Holdings, Inc. 10 percent owner 333 SOUTH GRAND AVENUE 28TH FLOOR LOS ANGELES CA 90071
Oaktree Capital Management Lp 10 percent owner 333 S GRAND AVE 28TH FL LOS ANGELES CA 90071
Oaktree Capital Group, Llc 10 percent owner 333 SOUTH GRAND AVENUE 28TH FLOOR LOS ANGELES CA 90071
Oaktree Capital Group Holdings Gp, Llc 10 percent owner 333 SOUTH GRAND AVENUE 28TH FLOOR LOS ANGELES CA 90071

Oaktree Specialty Lending Headlines

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